listen the problem is that when threads are started a week away there leaves a lot of filler space until we get to the nitty gritty of 72 hours which we are closing in on
OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
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Yes,#, don't listen to the a-holes who will argue anything and everything with everyone....and know jack squat about what they are arguing, like White Bus.
That guy can't hold your jock when it comes to understanding the weather. He'll never ever admit he's wrong about anything, even though several people have already told him to just STFU and don't comment on this topic if it bothers him so much.
His "1 correct prediction in 12 storms" fact is so full of shit he won't even come back to defend himself on posting such a blatant lie.
Because I run a business and it costs me money when people are afraid to leave their house for no reason.
And you'd rather the media not tell everyone in advance that a big storm is most likely coming....and let them get caught out on the road and in potentially dangerous driving conditions....all so you can make a few extra bucks on one DAY.
Your pathetic.
News 12 weather guy said one guidance has the brunt of the storm west of the turnpike with lesser amounts as you get to the coast. He emphasized this is just one guidance.
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Well blame the people for not being smart..Anyone that thinks a forecast is set in stone 4 or 5 days out are just foolish. Everything I've heard is saying a storm is possible, not certain.
Your pathetic in your attacks on me but just to show how dumb you are my business isn't the only one affected ahole. 4 states called for complete shutdowns last year for nothing!
I have no problem giving a heads up. But it's not a fact yet. They could use the words "potential" or "possibility" this far out couldn't they? Instead of today's "Monster Storm" on CBS
That's a part of it. People love sound bites and not the complete story. That's why Trump is leading in the polls.[winking]
What the hell is wrong with you? A little missed business is the price to pay when it can save lives. Everyone with a brain realizes that.
I will always attack you whenever you're being an asshole to others....which in your case, is all the time. Every board has its resident douchebag that NO ONE likes.
Ours drives a short white bus.
Stop being such a dick and people here won'y give you so much guff. These weather prognosticators have saved lives....and you're pissed if they get one wrong?
Where's the proof that the media was wrong on 11 out of 12 predictions last year, genius?
Everything I've seen, they've mentioned potential or possibility. I guess that's why I don't watch CBS. Ha.
I understand they screwed up last year ONCE. They made a mistake. Let it go. This seems much more likely than last year's storm.
Where have I attacked anyone on this thread? I'm attacking the media.
If you want the proof do it yourself. Take the 5 day forecasts on the local news (Philly) for every storm last year and see which ones hit the 5 day mark. And they also missed on last year's Storm of the Century inside the 12 hour window and badly!
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I'm not the one who made a preposterous statement that the media missed on 11 out of 12 storms, which is full of nothing but bullshit, so if you are going to do that, than prove it....or just know that everyone thinks your full of it.
Of course you won't do that because you CAN"T prove that, because it is FALSE.
Who did you attack? You attacked RU#s saying he gets a kick out of snowstorms that put people in danger. Then you say the media shouldn't be reporting that storms are coming, in case they are wrong....an action which would put even more people in danger because they would be caught unaware out on the road to get home.
All so you can selfishly not lose some business on ONE day out of the year.
Embarrassing that you would even admit that.
Please don't stop posting. I love coming here for my weather information. My daughter has a degree in atmospheric science from Cornell and I really appreciate all the knowledge and thought you put into your posts. It is a shame that people have to ruin the thread and I have to wade through posts that add nothing to the actual topic. The information you provide combined with the ladies at the Hillsborough deli make this thread a "go to" every time. The attackers should simply not click on the thread if they are so unbelievably angered and offended by a weather discussion.
Is his name Jon? He just replaced the auger pulley on mine that broke during one of the storms last year.
That's weird. Beer & liquor are part of the provisions I make sure to stock up on before storms. Wouldn't a four day warning lead to a front loading of sales for you?
#'s keep on posting because you fo do being experience and facts that you research with respect to the weather. White Bus, I don't know what your business is so please explain to all of us why the economy will take a nosedive. Stop being a pain in the ass when others present some decent facts. When you can do the research and present some real facts like #'s then the next time it may have some credibility.
The basic axiom.... be prepared or forewarned for bad weather and yes there are areas where the forecast changes at the last minute. And the forecast for South Jersey/Philly can be a lot different than Central Jersey or Long Island. And for that matter between Morristown area and New Brunswick or Bergen County and Red Bank etc. Use common sense as opposed go undocumented opinion. Thanks #'s for your efforts which are appreciated by many.
The basic axiom.... be prepared or forewarned for bad weather and yes there are areas where the forecast changes at the last minute. And the forecast for South Jersey/Philly can be a lot different than Central Jersey or Long Island. And for that matter between Morristown area and New Brunswick or Bergen County and Red Bank etc. Use common sense as opposed go undocumented opinion. Thanks #'s for your efforts which are appreciated by many.
First off my point isn't against a weather thread or #s. I disagree on how accurate he says the media is 5 days out but my point is and has always been the media coverage.
And only the media coverage.
As for facts the local NWS apologized last year for feeding the frenzy last winter. So it's not like this doesn't exist.
Lol I know I've already thought about a wine and liquor run on Thursday or Friday if the storm is on track to hit us
Ok, can we start a separate weather thread cause all this bickering and stuff makes it forever to scroll through to find the info I am looking for
Fair enough, but this thread is about the storm, and not the "coverage of it".
Would help alot if you took or complaints about the media to a different thread. Thanks.
Hey, they info here is usually pretty good and especially detailed. I am guessing that is why u are looking at this thread as well... To find out weather info
Sobering post from Paul Kocin, former "winter weather expert" at TWC, and the guy how literally wrote the 2-volume book entitled Northeast Snowstorms and developed the NESIS system for rating the impact of NE snowstorms. Again, doesn't mean a major or historic snowstorm is a certainty, but it's definitely in the cards, and at least a significant snowfall, i.e., 4-8" is becoming highly likely, especially now with this morning's model runs (GFS and Canadian) continuing to show a major snowstorm for the entire NE US.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016
HIGHLIGHTS...
LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.
COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE
SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO
THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER
EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND
TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.
IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS
WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS
ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.
IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z
GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND
THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.
IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO
DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE...
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT
ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE
TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE
FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH
AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS
PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.
KOCIN
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016
HIGHLIGHTS...
LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.
COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE
SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO
THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER
EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND
TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.
IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS
WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS
ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.
IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z
GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND
THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.
IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO
DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE...
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT
ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE
TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE
FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH
AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS
PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.
KOCIN
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
For winter storms they pay a fair amount of attention to the CGEM (Canadian model) as well.
The NAM is short range, but higher resolution.
Death, Taxes, and RU losing by 30 against the top 12 teams in B1G in men's baseketball
Funny, just read an article on CNN, and they're actually handling it pretty well, pointing out the whole uncertainty and why readers should wait until the middle of the week. I guess they aren't a hype machine like weather.com or NJ 101.5 when it comes to winter storms.
The ignore button is your friend. It's absurd what people argue about on here.
The 12z GFS is in and it shows a blizzard for many with widespread heavy snow, up to 2 feet in accumulation and strong winds. Look on the map to see the exact amount this model projects for your area. As of now timing would be late Friday to early Sunday morning. Remember, we are still several days away, exact track will be critical to actual amounts.
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