OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
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There will be many dry slots at the Hillsborough Deli if this does not produce at least 6 inches.
No, it's not a joke. A significant to major snowstorm is a fairly likely outcome (say 50-60%), but any forecaster has to also acknowledge that there are other somewhat less likely, but not remote outcomes, like an inland cutter that brings mostly rain to the big cities or a more out to sea solution that brings light to moderate snow (these are maybe 20-25% likely, each). I can't say there aren't some who are overhyping the storm (or will soon), but from what I've seen on a few TV stations, the mets are clearly noting that a major snowstorm isn't a given.
Sorry, they're very different. Big difference between posting that a significant to major snowfall is likely for the region (becoming likely) vs. posting where some specific mesoscale feature will set up, which is impossible to predict even a day or so out. I was talking about people who were saying things like the dry slot is likely to hit LI, for example - that's crazy talk at this point - I have no issue with people noting these mesoscale features might be important, though.
Leading the news 5 day our is hyping it, period. You like this stuff but putting fear into the general public isn't what the news should be about.
Last year businesses suffered on several occasions because we were supposed to get mega storms and they whiffed on the vast majority of them.
The job of the news should have a degree of sensibility.
So what is a news station supposed to do when they have information 4 days out that a major snow event could be coming our way, pretend it isn't happening?
I was supposed to be traveling Saturday morning. I've been given plenty of notice to easily change my plans, rather than have to drive 200 miles in potentially dangerous conditions.
Hyping the news is saying a blizzard it is definitely happening. Reporting that a Noreaster could hit the area is not hyping. If they report nothing and people get caught travelling in icy and snowy conditions and there are fatalities and injuries....that is far far worse than some people losing a little business because there wasn't a snow event.
You're way off base with regard to weather forecasting. We had one of the top 5 coldest/snowiest winters of all-time in most of Central/North Jersey/NYC. We got over 50" of snow in NYC, Newark, Edison, etc., (spread out over a dozen or so small to moderate storms), which is way above normal (~28" in NYC), and the "vast majority" of these storms were forecast quite well.
There was obviously one big exception to that with the "blizzard of 2015" well underperforming vs. expectations in NJ (but not everywhere else, as NYC on north/eastward got slammed). None of the other storms was forecast to be a "mega storm" (i.e., nothing over 8") and there were no other whiffs - not every other forecast was perfect, but they were generally reasonable.
You must have a failing memory about the so called Blizzard of the Century last year which brought us all a dusting.
5 days out isn't a time to hype a storm. Present it as a possibility not a fact. They ignored the Euro all last winter and looked like idiots.
You're way off base on how accurate they were last year. Total bullcrap on several major storms that never occurred or fell way short of the hype.
It one thing for weather weenies like you that think a blizzard is great, it another thing for the news is doing just what they are tonight. Predicting the worst.
Can you say without a doubt that we will be getting 8-12 inches on Friday?
Nope I remember that miss. It was an epic failure on the part of the weather services and media who reported it.
But while you never fail to let everyone know when they don't get an EPIC prediction right....you never give them credit for the moderate to heavy storms they do get right...and that number surely far outnumbers their misses.
And your proof to back that up.....because that is not possibly right! What do you base this on?
Last year they 1 for 12 big storms. Also you talk about warning people about the "dangers" of the weather. They lead the news tonight with a possible storm 4 days out. More homeless people will die tonight from near zero wind chills than people dying in a blizzard Friday but that's not sexy enough for the news.
It sells advertising. Whatever it takes to get the clicks and eyeballs.
CBS and ABC in Philly led with the possible storm. Then during the weather segments led with the storm again. A possible storm 4 days out shouldn't lead any news, period.
Otobor above has it right
Actually, if you watched the news the past few days, they have been talking A LOT about the extreme cold and below freezing temps. Not sure what news you're watching.
I would like to see actual proof that they (weather services/media) were right only once in 12 storms.... in order to believe that is not complete bullshit.
its more of a Saturday storm that could start sometime Friday night...daytime Friday should be fine. Of course timing isn't set in stone but this is the most likely timeframe right now
they shoudnt lead with cold either..thats pathetic. Its the northeast and its winter. Its cold but good lord isn't that cold, run of the mill cold
As Buggsy noted, alerting the public to the potential for a big storm is totally fine. News 4 was reporting this responsibly in both NY and Philly. Since they can't say with near 100% certainty what will happen, what do you suggest they do--put a big question mark on the 7-day forecast for Wed through Sun?
I'm sure some news outlets are and will overhype this storm, so here's a thought: change the channel and find one that doesn't.
I doubt you'd want to be sleeping outside tonight. It's cold enough that you wouldn't wake up tomorrow.
Maybe reminding people of that might lead to some donations to the local food banks or homeless shelters. Nothing wrong at all with talking about temps in the teens with wind chill in single digits.
Hits the nail on the head. Reports are already starting to hedge - perhaps just a few inches or maybe only rain. Very typical .
Congrats on the purchase. You may have the same habit of setting out to buy one thing with a mostly arbitrary budget and coming home with something lots better because why not. This has happened to me mostly with electronics, and a few other things.
Anyway, you spent extra money so I figure irony will ensure it hardy snows this winter. Or next winter. However, counter-irony could come into play. Say, for instance, you lose a favorite winter glove. That might lead to 10-20 inches.
Or some outlier event could occur that could skew the entire calculation. For example, I could be hit by a busload of nuns while driving my Suburban back from my dealer's house w/7 hookers and a pound of blow. The force of the crash could cause the cocaine to be blown out the back of the truck, getting both the hookers and the nuns very high in the process, before being lost to the wind. Another word for blow is snow. So that could very well precipitate a snowmageddon event, pun intended.
So, without more facts in hand, I concur that we don't have any real sense of the effect of the snowblower purchase at this time.
Oh man, all I had to eat today were three cheese sticks. I'm so having French toast at some point tomorrow.
My ex-wife told me that once, one summer many years into our marriage. Although, come to think of it, I believe she said it would be, not it is.
Still pretty good consensus on a major snowstorm Friday night into Saturday, but also still too early to "take it to the bank," as there is still some potential for a warmer, slightly inland solution, which would bring snow to rain for much of the area (but still a big storm), and still some potential for a somewhat suppressed and weaker solution that only brings light to moderate snow to the area (less N/W, but more towards the coast).
Having said that a major snowstorm (8" or more) is still the most likely solution, given pretty good model consensus, but confidence will be much higher if Tuesday night's and especially Wednesday morning's solutions show a major snowstorm, since the major pieces of energy should be better sampled by then, as they'll be onshore from the Pacific. I like the NWS-NYC write-up this morning.
FOR A STORM THAT IS 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT...BOTH IN THE MODELS THEMSELVES...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. ALSO...THE NAO AND THE AO ARE CURRENTLY NEGATIVE...AND ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE ARE FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS NEUTRAL...THEY SHOULD STILL BE NEGATIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND A COLD SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN THE GEFS AND THE NAEFS...THOUGH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD. ALSO...THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INDUCING THE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA IS STILL OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF OBSERVATIONS THAT WOULD BE INGESTED INTO THE MODELS. THIS DOES PLAY A ROLE IN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED ONCE IT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND ON TUESDAY. MINOR CHANGES IN WHERE THIS FEATURE IS ON TUESDAY COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA.
ITS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXIST FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS A FULL MOON COMING UP ON JAN 23.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Having said that a major snowstorm (8" or more) is still the most likely solution, given pretty good model consensus, but confidence will be much higher if Tuesday night's and especially Wednesday morning's solutions show a major snowstorm, since the major pieces of energy should be better sampled by then, as they'll be onshore from the Pacific. I like the NWS-NYC write-up this morning.
FOR A STORM THAT IS 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT...BOTH IN THE MODELS THEMSELVES...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. ALSO...THE NAO AND THE AO ARE CURRENTLY NEGATIVE...AND ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE ARE FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS NEUTRAL...THEY SHOULD STILL BE NEGATIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND A COLD SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN THE GEFS AND THE NAEFS...THOUGH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD. ALSO...THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INDUCING THE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA IS STILL OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF OBSERVATIONS THAT WOULD BE INGESTED INTO THE MODELS. THIS DOES PLAY A ROLE IN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED ONCE IT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND ON TUESDAY. MINOR CHANGES IN WHERE THIS FEATURE IS ON TUESDAY COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA.
ITS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXIST FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS A FULL MOON COMING UP ON JAN 23.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
No idea why Bus is so biased against meteorologists, but he's so wrong it's not funny. Yes, last year's blizzard was a major bust for anyone west of NYC (although it was far more than the dusting he claims for most - we got 8"), but most of the rest of the storms were reasonably well forecast. If I find some time, I'll post the forecasts and results for these storms. I also haven't seen one media outlet predicting snowfall amounts yet - sure, they've mentioned that major snows are possible to likely, because that's what the models are saying, but they've all hedged knowing the uncertainty involved.
The Euro last night pushed the bullseye a bit further south. Verbatim still high qpf but sharper cutoff into NY state. Have to watch today if it might be picking up on any trend
Jeez talk about a toxic board . A thread on snow turns into arguments about the news and other things . Some of you people love misery .
So wrong? We had NJ, PA, DE, declares states of emergency closing schools and more importantly business costing billions.
You get your jollies from major storms so your viewpoint is oddly biased. You think hurricanes are exciting but ignore the damage they do and the people that are killed.
I have no ill will to meteroligists. My problem is the media that sensationalize it before it a certain reality.
CBS just posted "Monster Winter Storm" "50 million people on East Coast face major Snow Blast" Put up a graphic of 2 feet of snow in West Virginia and the rest of the East Coast with 6-12. Is that certain at this point???
101.5 is hyping this. The morning host is talking about getting your generators ready because you are going to need it. Last night the topic was it was are you ready for the big snow?
Actually I think at this point they are hyping the hype as their lead story is that social media is calling for a big storm.
Actually I think at this point they are hyping the hype as their lead story is that social media is calling for a big storm.
If these threads get you so agitated, why bother opening them, much less trashing them? It's not as if you're going to stop these threads from being posted, nor are you being seen as a voice of reason in contrast to the alleged hype. Why get yourself and others aggravated? Go do something more pleasurable or comment on other threads where there isn't the vitriol (although that might not be on a Rutgers FB board)
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Is there anyway to keep this thread strictly about the possible pending storm or start a new one? That's why most people open these not to see personal bickering between a few posters or posts about weather station/media agendas.
Probably not. Doesn't seem to matter who starts the threads. People like to argue and snipe around here on any topic, including the weather. I've come close to stopping posting on the weather a few times, as the grief almost makes it not worth it, but despite assertions by some that my posts aren't useful/helpful, I've had many more people provide positive feedback. For some reason, it's only gotten bad in the past 3-4 years - not sure why, since I don't think my posting has changed much. For example, for as long as I've been posting about the weather on these boards (15 years?), I've always talked about how much I love snow - it's only been in the past few years that 4Real has made a big stink about it - not sure why. I have no problem with people scolding the media, as some outlets do hype these situations - I only get annoyed when people make outrageously inaccurate claims such as the "vast majority" of last year's forecasts being wrong.
Please don't stop posting the weather threads. I (and I am sure others) tremendously enjoy them and find them more informative than TV weather reports, which I rarely watch. Plus, where else do you updates on weather, dry slots and the Hillsborough Deli crew updates in one place? This thread has gotten particularly bad, but most of them stay on track (at least I think they do). Ignore the snipers. Snipers gonna snipe.
You're still wrong. What you called a huge miss and a "dusting" was 9 inches in Hoboken. What barely missed us destroyed the Boston mass transit system.
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