OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
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What about the other models? 4 ft of snow in Virginia? Will they cancel the football season?
GFS shows snowmaggedon (2 feet for most), but as noted, again, on AmericanWx, the shortwave coming in from the Pacific was actually not fully on shore at t=0, so still not worth getting too wound up until tomorrow's 12Z runs - if we see some model consensus for a major/historic snowstorm tomorrow, I'll be on board. Not yet, though, although I still think we're going to at least get decent snows (at least 3-6") along I-95 in from NB to NYC almost no matter what, i.e., even if today's Euro verifies.
Nailed it!
They don't need 4 feet. We were there winters of 2008 and 2009: 20 inches shut the place down for 3 days. They didn't have the equipment, supplies or knowledge to be able to deal with it.
that 2 feet wont verify as those snowfall maps are useless at this stage
anyhow Lee Goldberg said they will do snowmaps tomorrow but right now as a starting point put up these probabilities
12-18 inches: 20%
6-12 inches: 35%
3-6 inches: 25%
0-3 inches: 20%
really says he is focusing at this time on the 6-12 areawide but that can and will change
Lonnie Quinn per the 11PM News has Central NJ for about 15 inches or so per the North American Model and approx. 5 inches per the Euro....
I'll take your post as the first step in detente, lol. I'm sure you know a ton about storm surges and tidal flooding (not my area of expertise), but I have to say the reporting of these data have been terrible over the years: very confusing to most, since the terms are often not well defined for people (is it water height above high tide, low tide, mean height, etc.). I've seen the Sea Bright number reported as 9.56 feet above NAVD 88 (North American vertical datum), but that report doesn't relate that number to MLLW (low tide) and I'm not sure how that relates to the 8' number you mentioned. Regardless, as you and I (and the NWS and others) have noted, coastal flooding with this storm hitting during a full moon could be significant.
http://www.state.nj.us/dep/wms/suro_hurricanesandy_njwatermonitoring_meeting.pdf
I'm guessing you've seen Bryan Norcross's excoriation of the local NWS offices and how they dropped the ball during Sandy, both with regard to lack of understanding and poor communications of the actual risks, especially with regard to storm surge. Their predictions in both NJ and NY were for surges similar to Irene, when the surges generally were 3-5 feet above that and 3+ feet above all-time records in places like Battery Park, Sandy Hook and Sea Bright, obviously leading to worse flooding than most expected. If you haven't seen it, it's worth a read.
I still think the NWS is not communicating this risk well - today's briefing simply said there would be 2-3 foot departures around the 7 am high tide on Saturday, which is quite vague. At least they put more info into the AFD section on coastal flooding, saying it may be a top 5 coastal flood event (rivaling March 1962, Dec 1992 and Irene presumably; but not Sandy, which is its own category):
PLANING SHOULD NOW BE TAKING PLACE TO MINIMIZE THE ADVERSE IMPACT OF
WHAT "MAY" BE A TOP 5 COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IN OUR RECORD KEEPING,
DATING BACK THROUGH AT LEAST THE 1940S.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/unraveling-the-sandy-stormsurge-forecast
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Flooding schmooding. Just make it snow. Two to three feet or more would be great, please.
I like Lee a lot and I think he's reporting a responsible perspective on this, highlighting that it could be pretty huge, but will more likely just be significant to major (6-12"), but also noting it could be modest, especially to the N/W. He and Nick Gregory are easily the best NYC mets. I wish someone would take Lonnie Quinn and Janice Huff off the air.
Canadian also came in with 1-2 feet of snow and heard the UK looks snowy, but haven't seen any maps yet. Waiting on the Euro, although it's interesting to note that the WPC (the folks who forecast major storms at NOAA) just said that today's earlier Euro was "not preferred" as per the 1st comment below and is calling for major snowfall up to New York, as per the 2nd comment below.
THE ECMWF IS SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL IN THE BLENDING PROCESS.
MAIN IMPACTS...
MORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS WILL
AFFECT THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT LIKELY. BY SATURDAY ALSO...THE WINTER STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
EXPECTED FROM THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARD
NEW YORK WITH HUGE IMPACTS TO COMMERCE...TRAVEL...AND POSSIBLY
LIFE AND PROPERTY.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
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Euro much slower, but comes back north, dumping 8-20" across NJ (most towards Philly/least in NW NJ; could also be some mixing in SE coastal NJ) and around a foot in NYC - this assumes minimal mixing with sleet/rain and there is some disagreement on whether 850 mbar temps (a few thousand feet up) will get warm enough for sleet or even rain - obviously sleet/rain would hold down accumulations. Don't like the inconsistency in the models, even though 3 of the 4 main ones show major snowfall (UK still showing less/suppressed, but not as bad as earlier). Tomorrow's runs, with all the players fully onshore will be telling.
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Lonnie is the worst "meteorologist" (he has no degree, just one of those Cracker Jack box certificates) in the history of meteorology. Pretty boy who is dumb as a post - just like that guy Mike Woods on Fox5.
Lonnie Quinn was a soap opera actor. Once that work dried up, he tried on-screen weather personality. Lucky for us, he stuck.
You must work with M.O. at OEM? I am originally from Wall, and remember Mike when he was on Wall First Aid and I was on Wall Community First Aid.
Dan Zarrow 101.5 reports it will be snowing sometime between 6pm Friday evening and 6 pm Sunday evening. Someone in NJ will get 1 foot plus just don't know who. He says this is a guaranteed storm. He is concerned about the coast with the flooding.
Mike woods definitely shakey.
Any info on snow total in Essex county? Saw above Lonnie had central nj at 15" and 20" in Philly
I gotta say this coastal flooding scares me far worse than the possibility of snow. If there is as much of a surge as you're saying is possible, we're gonna be facing losses similar to what the surge caused for Sandy. Combine that with brutal cold and any significant accumulation of snow, and this could put a lot of people in harm's way.
DT said Euro last night only showed 6-7 inches for nyc/philly. Some of the overnight analysis on americanwx has been sloppy with the biases. Mt holly has a snowfall map up but its runs onlyfrom 7 am friday to 8 am saturday..not sure why they wouldnt just do one for the entire storm instead
In fairness to them I am sure there is a met guiding their forecast
My faves are Amy Freeze and the middle aged broad on channel 11 omg im getting Alzheimer's cant think of her name right now but shes been there forever in the mornings...yes I know they arent real mets..altho not sure on Amy
The models are pretty consensus that there is going to be a major/historic snowstorm - its just a matter of where. Obviously that matters alot - especially in this area - where 50 miles can be the difference between 20 million people under 2 feet of snow or 2 million.
A few of the weather guys on tv Goldberg, Jeff Smith on ABC were saying it should be okay til late friday night early saturday morning. Sounds like you should be okay if you can't find an earlier flight assuming nothing changes but I'd keep a watch just in case. Other guys here might have a better gauge on it.
Everybody watching the AmWX board knows that they're talking about '92 as a coastal analog. NWS Mt. Holly included a blurb in their coastal discussion this morning that indicates this "may" be a "Top 5 flooding event" in terms of their overall record-keeping. If this overall conversational tone continues and is supported by the models (and the actual evolution of the storm), then it could get pretty serious.
Linda Church Pix11 is my favorite! Pix11 has the best looking women. Tamsen Fadal is my fav!
For snow storms, I read this thread though.
For snow storms, I read this thread though.
The models are less and less agreement the closer we get. For instance the GEFS ensemble means are more like 4-8 inches areawide. There is one model showing a complete miss. Todays runs of the Euro and GFS loom large. I dont think any met can put out a forecast amount at this time with a shred of confidence
You don't want to be caught on the road in AC during a blizzard trust me.
Blizzard of 83 I was working in AC, I was at a red light behind a car that got stuck and within a very short period of time a minute or two? the snow had drifted up to my driver side window, only time I was ever scared in a snowstorm.
101.5 headline teaser was someone in NJ will get 18 plus.
On a side note the Hillsborough Deli was super packed today.
On a side note the Hillsborough Deli was super packed today.
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