OT: Major Winter Storm for Philly-NJ-NYC Area (12-24" very likely) for late Sun (1/31) into Tues (2/2)
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Be careful out there when shoveling
www.foxnews.com
Snow-shoveling dispute in Pennsylvania ends with 3 dead: report
Authorities in Pennsylvania responded to a shooting on Monday that resulted in three deaths—including a husband and wife, a report said.
Got another 1/2" since midnight to bring me to 17.0", but I see many others who saw 1-2" in Union/Somerset Counties, not too far from me; 32F right now in Metuchen and snowing lightly. Predictions are for 1-2" more today.
I can't imagine an actual 3" difference less than 1 mile away (an inch or so, sure). It's very possible your clearing locations were generally higher than surrounding areas. If you want to know the gory details, when I measure, I do two things: i) I follow the "official" measuring procedures of using a snowboard and measuring on the board (better than measuring on grass, which can inflate totals) and clearing the board every 6 hours (at most) and adding up the every 6-hour measurements (and putting the board back on top of undisturbed snow nearby) and ii) I also check snow depth throughout the entire back yard to see the variability and to get a mean, as a double-check, especially any time I clear the board.
By using a snowboard and clearing it, one generally sees less compaction vs. the total snow depth measurement. For example, at midnight when I reported 16.5" that was the sum of my board measurments, although for this storm I only cleared the board after the 1 pm measurement, which is when it started sleeting, as that will usually compact snowfall underneath a bit).
At midnight, I had some large areas that were 18-20" and some other large areas that were 14-15" vs. the lion's share which were 15-17" with a mean of about 16" vs. the 16.5" I reported, showing about a 0.5" compaction, which is kind of typical. I've seen as much as 1" compaction in some storms, especially if it changes to rain/freezing rain at some point or if more sleet falls, but we only got about 1/2" of sleet (equivalent to ~1.5" of snow). Having done this for many storms, my snowboard is in the middle of the backyard, where it's typically near the mean of all the measurements.
In addition, wind makes measuring difficult, which is why for Dec-2010 I ended up going to Edgar School and walking 50 yards out into the field to try to get a "representative" measurement, as I just couldn't get that in my much smaller backyard (and got 22-23" vs. the "official" Metuchen measurement of 27" - I'm convinced that person was measuring in a "high zone" in his yard). This storm wasn't quite as windy as that one, so I think i got a decent overall measurement. As I said above, I cleared my board around 1 pm yesterday around when the sleet started, when I had 13.5". This made subsequent measurements easier, as I only was measuring what had fallen since then, after that.
I've occasionally been accused of padding snow totals, but I believe I actually am quite conservative with my approach. The one reason I sometimes have more than others, especially in smaller storms, is because I use the snowboard and clear it every 6 hours (or less frequently), which minimizes compaction and I always measure right at the end of the snow, rather than waiting hours (especially in an overnight situation), which leads to compaction, especially if sleet is involved. To illustrate the timing point, my mean snow depth was around 16" at midnight and was about 15.5" at 8 am this morning, despite 1/2" of snow falling, meaning I had about 1" compaction in those 8 hours. All of the above can often lead to an "extra" 0.5-1.0" (but it's "real" and not "extra") vs. what others report near me.
Nice - same number from a friend on FB in Medford. That's why one shouldn't call a bust before a storm is over...
This is my 16yr old. Face planted by choice..We went for a walk and snowball fight last night in our pjs.🤷♀️
The little things in life...
It's also why you should check with someone before driving from Lambertville to Medford for work thinking it was smooth sailing down here lol. Wasn't bad, but definitely surprising.
doing it for the gram!This is my 16yr old. Face planted by choice..We went for a walk and snowball fight last night in our pjs.🤷♀️
The little things in life...
Not yet. Fox Chase reported 10.0" in Philly and the airport is at 7.7" vs. the NWS forecast of 11-12" - Philly may have been on the edge of the 12-18" swath, but the NWS always lists what they expect for Philly on those maps and it was never more that 12". Still a bit more snow left, especially for Philly...
That's awesome - I always do a snow angel every storm while its snowing, so I can relax for a few minutes in the snow and catch a few snowflakes in my mouth while they're falling. Not sure any pics exist of that, though...This is my 16yr old. Face planted by choice..We went for a walk and snowball fight last night in our pjs.🤷♀️
The little things in life...
Roads are basically all clear everywhere in my area. For my area not impresssed with this storm and its not even a top 10 storm for me not even sure if top 15
Well things need to change a lot right now. It's not snowing. It's so bright right now that things are melting.Not yet. Fox Chase reported 10.0" in Philly and the airport is at 7.7" vs. the NWS forecast of 11-12" - Philly may have been on the edge of the 12-18" swath, but the NWS always lists what they expect for Philly on those maps and it was never more that 12". Still a bit more snow left, especially for Philly...
Not sure how much we got exactly here in EB, but safe to say its "a lot":
I know some of you are much older than me, but I was at least around for the blizzards of 96 and 92... I'm surprised by this storms staying power - started at noon on Sunday and its still coming down 48 hours later.
I know some of you are much older than me, but I was at least around for the blizzards of 96 and 92... I'm surprised by this storms staying power - started at noon on Sunday and its still coming down 48 hours later.
Can't claim that if you never shared their snowfall map. Perhaps they were right for far southern Somerset with their 9-15" call, but I'm sure that call wasn't just for your town, as they forecast for the whole area, from what I've seen in the past. If their 9-15" forecast was for "Central Jersey" then they were right for Mercer and far southern Somerset and far southern Hunterdon, but not for most of Somerset, Hunterdon, and Middlesex, which had over 15" generally and sometimes well over 15", as per the reports and the map below.
I also have no idea what they predicted for the rest of the area, so judging their forecast is hard. If you're judging by one town, the you must think I'm the best forecaster around, since I predicted 19" for Metuchen and have 17" so far (maybe 17.5" now with a bit more to come, as it's snowing still), plus someone else from Metuchen reported 19.7". Hey @mildone - did you put in a report? I also said many times that I thought 12-24" was looking likely, especially for everyone north of 276/195 (and the thread title says it for the general Philly to NYC area), plus I started saying a major snowstorm was looking possible as far back as 6 days ago, so I await your accolades.
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Is that the Insta or the Finsta we're talking about??
Starting to sound like a "remote" tailgate this year if they still do not allow fans!!!
Wow, we had one pass last night and another early morning (Pway also). The snow is much heavier now than it was yesterday, especially at the base of the driveway where the plows leave compacted piles.
Don't care about the "map". Only care about our area and the fact that they get paid to be accurate, which they are.....once again.Can't claim that if you never shared their snowfall map. Perhaps they were right for far southern Somerset with their 9-15" call, but I'm sure that call wasn't just for your town, as they forecast for the whole area, from what I've seen in the past. If their 9-15" forecast was for "Central Jersey" then they were right for Mercer and far southern Somerset and far southern Hunterdon, but not for most of Somerset, Hunterdon, and Middlesex, which had over 15" generally and sometimes well over 15", as per the reports and the map below.
I also have no idea what they predicted for the rest of the area, so judging their forecast is hard. If you're judging by one town, the you must think I'm the best forecaster around, since I predicted 19" for Metuchen and have 17" so far (maybe 17.5" now with a bit more to come, as it's snowing still), plus someone else from Metuchen reported 19.7". Hey @mildone - did you put in a report? I also said many times that I thought 12-24" was looking likely, especially for everyone north of 276/195 (and the thread title says it for the general Philly to NYC area), plus I started saying a major snowstorm was looking possible as far back as 6 days ago, so I await your accolades.
Sorry, facts are facts.
He should be happy with all the snow he got but he can never admit some places did not get what was forecast. He said the forecast was never more than 12 inches for Philly. Yet the maps he posted had Philly in the 12-18 range not in the lower range before the storm began. Still can't admit its over either. Its almost sunny here and anything that has fallen this morning is not adding to the totals.
#Truth
I'm sure he is a good guy, but he definitely has an issue with discussing snow storms. He's way too emotional.
Getting a moderate snow band with big flakes now - this will likely put down another 1/2". These bands will be intermittent for some and in different locations throughout the day, unlike the main storm which hit everyone, but many will likely pick up an inch or two more today.
https://www.weathernerds.org/radar/...nd=On&initlightning16=Off&initlightning17=Off
https://www.weathernerds.org/radar/...nd=On&initlightning16=Off&initlightning17=Off
Just back in from clearing my driveway, walks and the same for my neighbor and his neighbor. There was a lot of compaction in the areas I had to clear today. The snow depth was actually lower than it was yesterday. And it was a bear to clear with the snow blower. I was cutting like 2" swaths because the snow was so heavy. This is with an Ariens snow blower, as folks here like to rave about.
I didn't put in a report. I'm a back of the classroom, hide from the authorities type. You know that. They'll be no official reporting by me.Can't claim that if you never shared their snowfall map. Perhaps they were right for far southern Somerset with their 9-15" call, but I'm sure that call wasn't just for your town, as they forecast for the whole area, from what I've seen in the past. If their 9-15" forecast was for "Central Jersey" then they were right for Mercer and far southern Somerset and far southern Hunterdon, but not for most of Somerset, Hunterdon, and Middlesex, which had over 15" generally and sometimes well over 15", as per the reports and the map below.
I also have no idea what they predicted for the rest of the area, so judging their forecast is hard. If you're judging by one town, the you must think I'm the best forecaster around, since I predicted 19" for Metuchen and have 17" so far (maybe 17.5" now with a bit more to come, as it's snowing still), plus someone else from Metuchen reported 19.7". Hey @mildone - did you put in a report? I also said many times that I thought 12-24" was looking likely, especially for everyone north of 276/195 (and the thread title says it for the general Philly to NYC area), plus I started saying a major snowstorm was looking possible as far back as 6 days ago, so I await your accolades.
Awww. She looks just like you. 😀This is my 16yr old. Face planted by choice..We went for a walk and snowball fight last night in our pjs.🤷♀️
The little things in life...
Did you look at the map I posted from the NWS, where it says "Philadelphia 12?" They include Philly on every snowfall map and it was either 11" or 12" since Saturday (they're all in this thread). The point-specific forecast for Philly supersedes the color of the swath Philly was in (and when it was an 11" forecast, Philly was in the 8-12" swath, as per the map below). And your current NWS forecast says 1-2" possible this afternoon. It might not happen, but I'm not making anything up.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.09832638231174&lat=40.017690908748875#.YBmPBOhKh3g
Nope. But Grandma didn't make it home in the snow last night.
Know why?
Because Grandma got run over by a reindeer (even though it wasn't Christmas eve).
Did you look at the others you posted on Saturday and Sunday morning? You pick the single on that suits your purpose. Besides isn't 7.7 less than 12?? I'm pretty sure it's less but maybe you will try to spin that tooDid you look at the map I posted from the NWS, where it says "Philadelphia 12?" They include Philly on every snowfall map and it was either 11" or 12" since Saturday (they're all in this thread). The point-specific forecast for Philly supersedes the color of the swath Philly was in (and when it was an 11" forecast, Philly was in the 8-12" swath, as per the map below). And your current NWS forecast says 1-2" possible this afternoon. It might not happen, but I'm not making anything up.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.09832638231174&lat=40.017690908748875#.YBmPBOhKh3g
I made a funny comment about a refund this morning and you can't even take a joke. I put 2 laughing emojis on it just so know you knew it was a funny jab. Maybe you just need some rest.
Once again, you're being disingenuous. WW got it "right" for about 1/3 of Somerset County with their 9-15" prediction, which was for the whole county, as per their report to the DPW, below, which is what I assume you've been referencing. For the rest of Somerset, roughly north of Hillsborough to Franklin Township, more than 15" fell, with much more than that for the northern half of the County where >20" fell for most N of 202/287. So perfect for you, crappy for most. Yet when the NWS gets most of a forecast right, but is wrong for you, you excoriate them. Sometimes I can't believe you actually got a degree from the same program I did.
Yes and I can post all of them if you want. Philly was never about 12" on any NWS map. The refund joke was funny, but then you went on a rant about whiffs in the same post, so I was just addressing that. And yes 8-10" in Philly (3 reports from 7.7 to 10.0") is less than 12", so the NWS was a bit low on the Philly forecast, but not hugely below.
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