OT: Nicole To Strike Central Fl Coast as Minimal Cat 1 and then hybrid system to have moderate impact on our area Fri/Sat

RU848789

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This is irrelevant to the precise topic, but I think maps like the one above -- showing the cone within which the center may move -- should be dumped. My understanding is that the evidence shows that people do not understand them. People think that if they live outside the cone, they have no worries. I realize that the map clearly says that hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone, but that message doesn't get through. It would be better, IMHO, to have a map that shows all of the area with a significant chance of being affected by the storm, and to differentiate within that map by probabilities (so that, for instance, Pittsburgh is shown as having a lower probability of being affected by Philadelphia.) But what do I know.
It's a great topic, as communicating risk probability/impact in the face of uncertainty, accurately, has been the subject of much discussion over the past few years for tropical systems by many (incliuding me and it applies to weather, in general). The linked article below does a nice job of capturing many of the issues and concerns. Probably the biggest issue is that the "cone" is based on a roughly 2 in 3 probability that the track will be within the cone at every time step (12-24 hour increments), based on historical accuracy of the model consensus that the NHC calculates - which obviously means that the track, on average, has a 1 in 3 chance of being outside the cone.

Personally, I think the cone was a great advance 20+ years ago and I wouldn't scrap it, but I'd look to improve it. One change I've advocated for is labelling the outer cone lines to explicitly note that the center has a 2 in 3 chance of remaining within that cone, plus adding a 2nd cone (with a different color) showing where the center is maybe 90% likely to remain inside the cone, so that people see how much further outside the main cone the track might travel. I'd also love to see the little S's and H's at each time point actually be S1, S2, and H1 through H5, denoting forecast winds. For example, H1 would be for a cat 1 hurricane with 74-95 mph winds and I'd include that wind range right under the text showing the time stamp; I'd also split tropical storm into 2 levels, 39-55 mph as S1 and 56-73 mph as S2.

The article also shows well how the historical accuracy might not always be the best way to go for the cone. For example, for Ian, the cone should have been larger, given the bifurcation in model outcomes (with the Euro/UK showing a more southerly landfall near Ft. Myers, while the GFS and other models showed a landfall north of Tampa), which meant it was more likely than usual that the track would be outside the cone (and it was). Also, the angle of approach for Ian was the worst case, where the storm was forecast to head close to parallel to the FL Gulf coast, meaning small changes in track would lead to very large changes in landfall, as we eventually saw.

One other thing that the cone graphic doesn't convey well, as you noted, is the risk of major impacts outside the cone. Perhaps the best example of this was Ian, where Naples, FL was not within the cone, yet was subject to catastrophic storm surge from the hurricane, given that the right side of the storm is always strongest (and the cone is symmetrical), especially with regard to surge. Maybe the cone/track map should also show where storm surge warnings are, especially when outside of the cone track.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/10/building-a-better-hurricane-cone-of-uncertainty/
 

RU848789

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Right now that map is the best guess, so it would mean widespread 2-4" rainfall everywhere in our region, but this is still several days away, so uncertainty is still high - the forecast track of Nicole did move inland a bit and often the heaviest rains are along and NW of the track so it's possible the heaviest rains will be NW of 95, but it's doubtful anywhere in our area will escape without at least 1" of rain - but a couple of models are showing 1" or less along the coast with 2" or more along and especially NW of 95, so stay tuned...

Y2As8nU.png

Back to Nicole, which is now almost a hurricane with 70 mph winds as it nears the Bahamas, and is forecast to become a minimal Cat 1 hurricane (~75 mph) at landfall in the northern Bahamas, as well as on the central Florida east coast with the center of the track bringing the storm ashore around Ft. Pierce - with the cone being from about West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. Fortunately, the storm is not forecast to intensify any more than that given the marginal dynamic (elevated wind shear) and thermodynamic (modest dry air entrainment) factors affecting the storm. There will be significant, but not catastrophic, storm surge (especially north of landfall), wind damage, and flooding from rainfall (3-6" is forecast, which is not that far out of the ordinary for FL).

The track after landfall in FL shifted back SE a touch for Nicole's trek inland of the east coast, but given that Nicole will be a remnant low interacting with the approaching major trough, the exact track is less important, as rainfall will likely be heaviest NW of the storm's track (usually NE of the track for tropical systems), while winds will likely not be much more than 25-30 mph in our area, with gusts to 40 mph (although possibly higher with jet streak interactions). Also, tonight's model suite is showing a better consensus on rainfall, with about 0.5-1.0" near the coast, 1-2" along and NW of 95 and 2-3" or more well NW of 95 (like NW of Harrisburg to Scranton to Albany), with the rain falling from Friday late morning through early Saturday morning - and, in fact, it's quite possible the rain will be over well before noon on Saturday, leaving us with a dry weekend.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 27.1N 74.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.9N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 32.8N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 47.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

ikbtEPd.png
 
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Maybe you should research just a tiny bit before posting, as your post is way off base. There were only two storms that had minimal TS force winds this season (40 mph). Colin was a TS for 18 hours and Hermine was a TS for about 24 hours, meaning they likely would've been detected in any year. Plus, there were two storms that came very close to becoming named systems, with 35 mph winds, but these were never named, as they didn't quite make it to 40 mph (39 mph really, but they always report windspeeds at 5 mph increments). If the NHC wanted to pad stats, I'm sure they could have figured out a way to have these two named, but fortunately, they're good scientists, with high integrity, who simply let the data do the talking. I suggest you do likewise.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml

Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
TS Lisa 31- Oct 45
---------------------------------------------------
Where do you buy the hats to fit your big head?
 
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miket007

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I just overseeded last Friday down here in Delaware and I sure as hell wasn't counting on 1-2" of rain......NOT GOOD!
 

RU848789

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Thought you were just being earnest, lol...
Interesting. In making the above post, I clicked "post reoly" once and waited a few seconds and it didn't look like my post went live (still saw the draft message), but I got the message saying I needed to wait X seconds before posting again, so I hit refresh and saw my post. I wonder if I had hit post reply a 2nd time if it would've posted twice.
 

RU848789

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Thought you were just being earnest, lol...
Interesting. In making the above post, I clicked "post reoly" once and waited a few seconds and it didn't look like my post went live (still saw the draft message), but I got the message saying I needed to wait X seconds before posting again, so I hit refresh and saw my post. I wonder if I had hit post reply a 2nd time if it would've posted twice.

Edit - yep, I hit post reply a 2nd time and got the same message saying I needed to wait X seconds and I got a dupe reply. Weird. Let's see what happens when I save this edit...
 

retired711

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Interesting. In making the above post, I clicked "post reoly" once and waited a few seconds and it didn't look like my post went live (still saw the draft message), but I got the message saying I needed to wait X seconds before posting again, so I hit refresh and saw my post. I wonder if I had hit post reply a 2nd time if it would've posted twice.

Edit - yep, I hit post reply a 2nd time and got the same message saying I needed to wait X seconds and I got a dupe reply. Weird. Let's see what happens when I save this edit...
If you wait a few minutes, the board works right. If you don't, you'll end up with duplicate posts. And, when you try to remove a duplicate post, you'll get an error message -- but in a moment or two, the system will do what you asked for. It's just not a good day for the board.
 

retired711

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More relevantly for us, the remnants of Nicole are expected to cause some severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes on Friday evening and overnight in the Delmarva Peninsula, metropolitan Philadelphia, and southern/central New Jersey. "Heavy rains and flooding are possible also." https://www.weather.gov/phi/weatherstory
 

RU848789

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Back to Nicole, which is now almost a hurricane with 70 mph winds as it nears the Bahamas, and is forecast to become a minimal Cat 1 hurricane (~75 mph) at landfall in the northern Bahamas, as well as on the central Florida east coast with the center of the track bringing the storm ashore around Ft. Pierce - with the cone being from about West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. Fortunately, the storm is not forecast to intensify any more than that given the marginal dynamic (elevated wind shear) and thermodynamic (modest dry air entrainment) factors affecting the storm. There will be significant, but not catastrophic, storm surge (especially north of landfall), wind damage, and flooding from rainfall (3-6" is forecast, which is not that far out of the ordinary for FL).

The track after landfall in FL shifted back SE a touch for Nicole's trek inland of the east coast, but given that Nicole will be a remnant low interacting with the approaching major trough, the exact track is less important, as rainfall will likely be heaviest NW of the storm's track (usually NE of the track for tropical systems), while winds will likely not be much more than 25-30 mph in our area, with gusts to 40 mph (although possibly higher with jet streak interactions). Also, tonight's model suite is showing a better consensus on rainfall, with about 0.5-1.0" near the coast, 1-2" along and NW of 95 and 2-3" or more well NW of 95 (like NW of Harrisburg to Scranton to Albany), with the rain falling from Friday late morning through early Saturday morning - and, in fact, it's quite possible the rain will be over well before noon on Saturday, leaving us with a dry weekend.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 27.1N 74.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.9N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 32.8N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 47.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

ikbtEPd.png

Nicole just made landfall on Grand Bahama Island as a 75 mph Cat 1 hurricane and is now headed towards landfall on Huntington Island a few miles south of Ft. Pierce and maybe 20 miles south of Vero Beach, where my dad is hunkered down (my sister, who also lives in Vero is in NC with her daughter/grandkids). Will likely still be at 75 mph at FL landfall. As I've been saying, flooding from rainfall/surge and wind damage will likely be significant for some, but not catastrophic for the vast majority (although "catastrophic" is in the eye of the beholder).

Beyond that, the NHC is now forecasting Nicole to dissipate more quickly than originally forecast, as one can see from the map. That's somewhat of an academic issue, since the storm's remnants are still forecast to travel up the spine of the Apps, bringing heavy rains (2-4") well west of our area, but the forecast still calls for 1-2" of rain on Friday afternoon through very early Saturday for areas along and especially NW of 95 and for 1" or less from 95 and SE-ward towards the coast. This will likely result in minimal rainfall flooding in our area. Winds could be quite high and an advisory for at least the coast is likely for gusts in the 40-50 mph range (gusts should be <40 mph inland). Coastal flooding is not expected at this time. Overall, this has become close to a non-issue for our area, i.e., if it weren't for Nicole's impacts in FL, I doubt a thread would've ever been started just for the impacts in our area.

gBOGHBo.png


sgT9yKM.png
 

RU848789

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More relevantly for us, the remnants of Nicole are expected to cause some severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes on Friday evening and overnight in the Delmarva Peninsula, metropolitan Philadelphia, and southern/central New Jersey. "Heavy rains and flooding are possible also." https://www.weather.gov/phi/weatherstory

Thanks for posting the link/info, although I think you might have overstated the severe risk a little bit, as the wording in the NWS graphic is, "a few thunderstorms could develop across the region and it's possible a few of the thunderstorms could contain damaging winds and possibly a tornado." That's a low risk of severe weather and a very low risk of tornadoes, Much of this is summarized in the NWS meteorologists discussion, below, with the key point in bold, that the risk of tornadoes is quite low, i.e., 5% or marginal. Let's hope we don't see any severe weather...

Severe weather is the big wild-card and the one potential
impact that we will have to keep the closest eye on, even if it
looks like a fairly low probability given the lack of
instability, especially of the surface-based variety. After an
initial wave of warm-advection rain goes by on Friday, from
Friday evening into the overnight there will be a window where
at least some degree of elevated CAPE will be present. Much of
the guidance is showing a prominent dry slot during this period,
but that may allow any isolated convection to be more discrete
and potentially stronger. There will definitely be a high degree
of low-level shear and helicity, so that some stronger cells
will be a possibility, capable of either mixing down some
stronger winds aloft very briefly in/around any storms, or even
spinning up a brief tornado. SPC only has us in a (5%) marginal
risk at this time; warranted given the lack of instability.
 
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Was just at Disney. Literally 8 hours of walking around in the rain. Sitting in the house now in Kissimmee waiting for the hurricane to smack into us later tonight. We are just going to sit in the VRBO all day. Then we fly back home into Pittsburgh Saturday and I’m sure we’ll hit the residual of it then. Been a good trip but a hurricane in November was a surprise.
 
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Weak. If you can't win an argument, resort to insults.
I shall try once to explain it to you.

I made a post that essentially said that a storm with the letter N was surprising given how quiet the Atlantic Storm season has been.

While that is my opinion and impression, it has been shared by many including people on this board in other storm threads.

So.. what do you do? Critique my stated impression and say..

"Maybe you should research just a tiny bit before posting,.."

Now.. That was insulting and not respectful of a poster expressing an opinion.. stating his impression. There had to be a dozen different ways you could have replied without claiming that I was trying to make a factual comment. But you had to show that you knew something about this subject. You had to put me in my place.

I am sorry, but that is so much ego-talking. My post had nothing to do with you or your knowledge of the subject. You cannot even tolerate someone expressing an impression.. and opinion.. on a subject that you seem to claim is yours and yours alone on this board.

So I suggest you have a big head and your lame reply is that I resorted to an insult. As if I was trying to win an argument on the subject of weather. No.. I stated a fact. Your ego knows no bounds. You are WEATHER. How dare someone say it seems like the Atlantic Hurricane season has been quiet.. that is for you to decide, right?

You should be insulted. Often. You deserve it. And **** you, btw. Oops.. now I resorted to vulgarities! How dare I.
 
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RU848789

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I shall try once to explain it to you.

I made a post that essentially said that a storm with the letter N was surprising given how quiet the Atlantic Storm season has been.

While that is my opinion and impression, it has been shared by many including people on this board in other storm threads.

So.. what do you do? Critique my stated impression and say..

"Maybe you should research just a tiny bit before posting,.."

Now.. That was insulting and not respectful of a poster expressing an opinion.. stating his impression. There had to be a dozen different ways you could have replied without claiming that I was trying to make a factual comment. But you had to show that you knew something about this subject. You had to put me in my place.

I am sorry, but that is so much ego-talking. My post had nothing to do with you or your knowledge of the subject. You cannot even tolerate someone expressing an impression.. and opinion.. on a subject that you seem to claim is yours and yours alone on this board.

So I suggest you have a big head and your lame reply is that I resorted to an insult. As if I was trying to win an argument on the subject of weather. No.. I stated a fact. Your ego knows no bounds. You are WEATHER. How dare someone say it seems like the Atlantic Hurricane season has been quiet.. that is for you to decide, right?

You should be insulted. Often. You deserve it. And **** you, btw. Oops.. now I resorted to vulgarities! How dare I.

You need to reread your first post in this thread and get back to me. For about the 5th time over several years you were implying that the NHC pads its stats on storms as part of some sort of "conspiracy" related to global warming, I guess. Here is what I objected to in your post: "Maybe they should name the "fish storms" after fish and save the alphabet. That way, when the alarmists mention a storm named..." I get tired of the repeated carping on this from you and a few others, so I felt the need to show, again, that the NHC does no such thing.

If all you had done was note and wonder why this season was below expectations (assuming no unprecedented November finish) relative to the busier than normal season predicted by the various tropical season forecasters, I probably wouldn't have even replied as I have no idea why that's the case - and I'm not "deciding" anything as it's crystal clear this season, as of now has underperformed vs. those prediction. It happens - their analog based predictive models are good, but nowhere near perfect.

There have been many other people who have posted in this thread and other tropical weather threads and I think your post might be the only one I had a major issue with, i.e., I welcome commentary and interesting information about these topics, but I will call BS when it's appropriate, as it was here. I don't welcome your repeated carping on this and your childish insults betray your immaturity and inability to argue your points like an adult. Grow up.
 

RU848789

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Was just at Disney. Literally 8 hours of walking around in the rain. Sitting in the house now in Kissimmee waiting for the hurricane to smack into us later tonight. We are just going to sit in the VRBO all day. Then we fly back home into Pittsburgh Saturday and I’m sure we’ll hit the residual of it then. Been a good trip but a hurricane in November was a surprise.
Yeah, November hurricanes are pretty rare, especially landfalling ones - sucks to have one impact your vacation...
 

retired711

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You need to reread your first post in this thread and get back to me. For about the 5th time over several years you were implying that the NHC pads its stats on storms as part of some sort of "conspiracy" related to global warming, I guess. Here is what I objected to in your post: "Maybe they should name the "fish storms" after fish and save the alphabet. That way, when the alarmists mention a storm named..." I get tired of the repeated carping on this from you and a few others, so I felt the need to show, again, that the NHC does no such thing.

If all you had done was note and wonder why this season was below expectations (assuming no unprecedented November finish) relative to the busier than normal season predicted by the various tropical season forecasters, I probably wouldn't have even replied as I have no idea why that's the case - and I'm not "deciding" anything as it's crystal clear this season, as of now has underperformed vs. those prediction. It happens - their analog based predictive models are good, but nowhere near perfect.

There have been many other people who have posted in this thread and other tropical weather threads and I think your post might be the only one I had a major issue with, i.e., I welcome commentary and interesting information about these topics, but I will call BS when it's appropriate, as it was here. I don't welcome your repeated carping on this and your childish insults betray your immaturity and inability to argue your points like an adult. Grow up.
Let me respectfully suggest that both you and @GoodOl'Rutgers should disengage.
 
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fsg2

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I shall try once to explain it to you.

I made a post that essentially said that a storm with the letter N was surprising given how quiet the Atlantic Storm season has been.

While that is my opinion and impression, it has been shared by many including people on this board in other storm threads.

So.. what do you do? Critique my stated impression and say..

"Maybe you should research just a tiny bit before posting,.."

Now.. That was insulting and not respectful of a poster expressing an opinion.. stating his impression. There had to be a dozen different ways you could have replied without claiming that I was trying to make a factual comment. But you had to show that you knew something about this subject. You had to put me in my place.

I am sorry, but that is so much ego-talking. My post had nothing to do with you or your knowledge of the subject. You cannot even tolerate someone expressing an impression.. and opinion.. on a subject that you seem to claim is yours and yours alone on this board.

So I suggest you have a big head and your lame reply is that I resorted to an insult. As if I was trying to win an argument on the subject of weather. No.. I stated a fact. Your ego knows no bounds. You are WEATHER. How dare someone say it seems like the Atlantic Hurricane season has been quiet.. that is for you to decide, right?

You should be insulted. Often. You deserve it. And **** you, btw. Oops.. now I resorted to vulgarities! How dare I.

That reads like a break-up text. From a chick.
 

jakeknight

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Booked into Tampa tomorrow early flight out of Newark, flights in and out of Tampa cancelled for 11/10 and 11/11. Would imagine the same holds for Orlando, bottom line everything FUBAR in or out of Fl for at least the next two days
 

NickRU714

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Was just at Disney. Literally 8 hours of walking around in the rain. Sitting in the house now in Kissimmee waiting for the hurricane to smack into us later tonight. We are just going to sit in the VRBO all day. Then we fly back home into Pittsburgh Saturday and I’m sure we’ll hit the residual of it then. Been a good trip but a hurricane in November was a surprise.

Neighbors went down on Tuesday.
They said parks closed early yesterday until this afternoon.
They don't come back until Sunday.
 

RU848789

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Booked into Tampa tomorrow early flight out of Newark, flights in and out of Tampa cancelled for 11/10 and 11/11. Would imagine the same holds for Orlando, bottom line everything FUBAR in or out of Fl for at least the next two days
I get today, but not tomorrow, as the weather in central FL should be fine by sunrise tomorrow, at the latest.
 

MoreCowbellRU

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I get today, but not tomorrow, as the weather in central FL should be fine by sunrise tomorrow, at the latest.
I'm in Fla. as well. Been in Cleawater since Sun.
A little heavy rain and wind so far on west coast. Haven't checked with my buddy in Port St. Lucie today yet. Last we spoke he said wasn't too bad. Just heavy rain and wind like here.
Except in surge areas, a cat 1 shouldn't be a huge deal.

Unless they have no power or lots to clean up, one day down should be enough. I'm not in Orlando though. If I hear differently from my brother I'll post. He's over there.
 

Knightmoves

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My buddy lives on the ocean in Vero Beach and the storm passed directly over them early this morning. Minimal damage locally and because they were located within the eye of the storm it was relatively quiet after the initial high winds as the storm approached.
 

SteveVA2

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Really starting to pour now on Hilton Head. Windy too. That’s the real problem for us since we’re so heavily treed. According to the weather maps we’re outside the cone. When I went out with the dog around 12, the combination of high tide, wind, and rough surf had pushed the sea grass all the ways up to the dunes.
 

RU848789

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My buddy lives on the ocean in Vero Beach and the storm passed directly over them early this morning. Minimal damage locally and because they were located within the eye of the storm it was relatively quiet after the initial high winds as the storm approached.
My dad said it wasn't too bad (nothing like Jeanne/Frances in 2004) and this video report shows some damage, but comments that damage was fairly limited, which is good. Landfall was at 3 am, in southernmost Vero Beach.

https://www.local10.com/video/news/2022/11/10/vero-beach-cleaning-up-from-hurricane-nicole/
 
Sep 11, 2006
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Booked into Tampa tomorrow early flight out of Newark, flights in and out of Tampa cancelled for 11/10 and 11/11. Would imagine the same holds for Orlando, bottom line everything FUBAR in or out of Fl for at least the next two days
Sunday is shaping up to be a spectacular day down there... in a string of pretty good days, as often happens after a big storm passes.
 
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knightfan7

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A friend is vacationing on the east coast. He had to leave the beachfront hotel and ended up in West Palm Beach. He was supposed to fly home Wednesday but changed to a flight out of Ft Lauderdale tomorrow.
 
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