OT: Nicole To Strike Central Fl Coast as Minimal Cat 1 and then hybrid system to have moderate impact on our area Fri/Sat

[retired711]

Thanks for posting the link/info, although I think you might have overstated the severe risk a little bit, as the wording in the NWS graphic is, "a few thunderstorms could develop across the region and it's possible a few of the thunderstorms could contain damaging winds and possibly a tornado." That's a low risk of severe weather and a very low risk of tornadoes, Much of this is summarized in the NWS meteorologists discussion, below, with the key point in bold, that the risk of tornadoes is quite low, i.e., 5% or marginal. Let's hope we don't see any severe weather...

Severe weather is the big wild-card and the one potential
impact that we will have to keep the closest eye on, even if it
looks like a fairly low probability given the lack of
instability, especially of the surface-based variety. After an
initial wave of warm-advection rain goes by on Friday, from
Friday evening into the overnight there will be a window where
at least some degree of elevated CAPE will be present. Much of
the guidance is showing a prominent dry slot during this period,
but that may allow any isolated convection to be more discrete
and potentially stronger. There will definitely be a high degree
of low-level shear and helicity, so that some stronger cells
will be a possibility, capable of either mixing down some
stronger winds aloft very briefly in/around any storms, or even
spinning up a brief tornado. SPC only has us in a (5%) marginal
risk at this time; warranted given the laTck of instability.

The forecast for our area seems to have gotten a little more concerning. But I'll let others judge. Here's the NWS's briefing from 5 a.m. this morning. https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

 

[e5fdny]

I’ll take the rain amounts but not happy about the wind.

 

[RU848789]

The forecast for our area seems to have gotten a little more concerning. But I'll let others judge. Here's the NWS's briefing from 5 a.m. this morning. https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

I disagree for the most part, although I can see why people would think the briefing is concerning. Rainfall forecasts have come down markedly since 2-3 days ago, greatly reducing flooding potential, which was the biggest risk to most with this storm. Wind forecasts increased a bit for the coast, but we have at least a dozen wind advisories per year along the coast from various storms, so the winds that are forecast should not be damaging, except for very isolated cases of weakened trees coming down.

And the severe weather risk hasn't changed much, as severe storms are very likely to be quite isolated and limited to areas south of 276/195 for the most part and are significantly less than the risks we regularly get from summertime mesoscale convective events. It doesn't mean there won't be any severe storms or localized flooding, especially NW of 95 or isolated power outages from wind (especially along the coast), but the likelihood of these events is pretty low, as per the 2nd graphic from the NWS briefing.

 

[e5fdny]

I disagree for the most part, although I can see why people would think the briefing is concerning. Rainfall forecasts have come down markedly since 2-3 days ago, greatly reducing flooding potential, which was the biggest risk to most with this storm. Wind forecasts increased a bit for the coast, but we have at least a dozen wind advisories per year along the coast from various storms, so the winds that are forecast should not be damaging, except for very isolated cases of weakened trees coming down.

And the severe weather risk hasn't changed much, as severe storms are very likely to be quite isolated and limited to areas south of 276/195 for the most part and are significantly less than the risks we regularly get from summertime mesoscale convective events. It doesn't mean there won't be any severe storms or localized flooding, especially NW of 95 or isolated power outages from wind (especially along the coast), but the likelihood of these events is pretty low, as per the 2nd graphic from the NWS briefing.

Agree with @RU848789 as this is better than what was forecasted previously.

Even the wind for around me was thought it be a little stronger. Still don’t like it, but it’s a little better.

 

[RU848789]

Agree with @RU848789 as this is better than what was forecasted previously.

Even the wind for around me was thought it be a little stronger. Still don’t like it, but it’s a little better.

And the really good news for most is that this occurs from now through early Saturday morning, such that the weekend should be rain-free after about sunrise tomorrow. Will also be quite mild tomorrow, but windy and then the bottom drops out as that front finally comes through bringing the coldest weather of the season from Sunday through mid-next week with highs in the 40s for most and lows at or below freezing.

 

[DJ Spanky]

One of my colleagues who lives southeast of Richmond just told me they had bouts of extremely heavy rain overnight along with tornado alerts that are active until 3PM today.

 

[RU848789]

One of my colleagues who lives southeast of Richmond just told me they had bouts of extremely heavy rain overnight along with tornado alerts that are active until 3PM today.

Yep, there are a few active tornado warnings in SE VA right now, including one that was just issued for Richmond Metro, for an ongoing very severe t-storm with the potential to spawn a tornado.