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OT: Tropics more active...Florence to make NC/SC landfall on 9/14

Wouldn’t it be fair to drop the hurricane warning in favor of a tropical storm warning north of Hatteras at this point? Nobody really expects hurricane conditions on Bodie Island, right?
Too soon, with hurricane force gusts on Hatteras, storm surges already being reported in Pamlico Sound and hurricane force gusts extending 100 miles from the center which would include Nags Head now. Also, some of these outer bands mean business - radar is showing some "spin" on some convective cells on Ocracoke, next to Hatteras, and the north side of the storm will likely have some embedded tornadoes including potentially north of Hatteras. Plus, I don't see the benefit of sending a signal of less concern, especially with a strengthening storm.
 
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Reading Jeff Masters blog and he said a personal weather station on Emerald Island, NC recorded 2.9 inches of rain in 40 minutes at 10am. I don’t know where that falls on the a lot to a little scale but it sounds like a lot to me.
 
Shit's getting real...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/132256.shtml?

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1000 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...1000 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA AREA...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h) and a gust to
101 mph (163 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 79 mph (127 km/h)
and a wind gust of 98 mph (158 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort
Macon, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph
(114 km/h) and a wind gust of 100 mph (160 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Oriental, North Carolina, on the Neuse
River is recording a water height of about 6.0 feet above normal
levels.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
I have had this argument before. The media loves this crap. 6ABC Philadelphia has a local newscaster on site in the Carolinas. Why?? She is reporting only in the Philly market. She isnt saving lives. ABC has national people are there. She is putting herself and the camera man in danger. Stupid. Beyond stupid
 
Again, little change from the NHC on the track and the winds are down to 100 mph. We're now about 12-18 hours from landfall, as the storm has slowed down quite a bit and "landfall" will take hours - or days if the storm stays just along the coast from NC down to SC, as is possible - it's still not a given that Florence slowly goes inland from the Wilmington area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 33.7N 76.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 34.1N 77.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 33.8N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 34.8N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 37.9N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 42.7N 76.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

41687785_10214650044758826_4174830906042744832_n.jpg

Florence now down to a Cat 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, but the pressure remains the same at 956 mbar, which is usually indicative of a Cat 3 storm - the reason for the discrepancy is that Florence is so large, so the winds are spread out over a very large area vs. a smaller storm with higher max winds at the center. Means less destructive winds at the center, but much more destructive winds over a large area and much more impact from a surge and rainfall perspective, especially since it'll be pounding a large area for 24-36 hours vs most hurricanes which only impact an area for 6-12 hours.

Track forecast is unchanged, really. Florence is 50 miles south of Morehead City and 75 miles ESE of Wilmington and moving NW at only a few mph, expected to make landfall near Wilmington in 8-12 hours and then expected to keep moving quite slowly to the WSW or even SW along the coast or just inland towards Myrtle Beach by Saturday morning and then still moving pretty slowly towards Columbia, SC by Sat night, then Greenville, SC by Sunday night. Some models still show Florence moving further SW along the coast towards Georgetown, SC (about halfway between Myrtle and Charleston), before that move inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 34.0N 76.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 34.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 35.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 39.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/0000Z 44.0N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

41678532_10214651627238387_3211825605360222208_n.jpg


Here's the updated WPC rainfall forecast for the next 5 days. Catastrophic for quite a large area.

41733093_10214651883564795_5752278054906888192_n.jpg


One piece of good news related to the lower winds is that the storm surge predictions have been decreased a bit from earlier today, as per the map...

41723624_10214652186892378_6728828200677277696_o.jpg
 
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I have had this argument before. The media loves this crap. 6ABC Philadelphia has a local newscaster on site in the Carolinas. Why?? She is reporting only in the Philly market. She isnt saving lives. ABC has national people are there. She is putting herself and the camera man in danger. Stupid. Beyond stupid

The media "loves this crap" because readers and viewers are attracted by stories like this. You must be, to, or otherwise you wouldn't be following this thread about a storm not in our area.
 
The media "loves this crap" because readers and viewers are attracted by stories like this. You must be, to, or otherwise you wouldn't be following this thread about a storm not in our area.
I'm not following this thread. My first post
 
But obviously you decided you were interested enough in the storm to read the thread.
I haven't read a single post until you quoted me. I'm not interested in a storm enough where 6 ABC thinks it is important to send a reporter to a storm that will have zero impact in Philly or Camden this weekend
This thread is 13 pages long, has nearly 400 replies and 18k views. I post one comment about local media and you are calling me out, why?
 
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Some serious wind gusts reported, some major storm surges being reported with numerous water rescues already and 5-10" of rain already along parts of the NC coast and we're just getting going.

41748622_10214652342176260_7727144819797000192_n.jpg


Intense outer band of the eyewall only a few hours from hitting the coast from Topsail to Wilmington. Will likely be 90-100 mph gusts in this band, intense rainfall and possibly isolated tornadoes.

41721448_10214652344096308_8040102542442496000_n.jpg
 
While Florence is a Cat 1 storm, as defined by max winds, when looking at the central pressure of 957 millibars, it looks more like a Cat 3 storm. The reason for this is that the storm has become much larger than most storms, such that the energy is spread out in lower winds, much further from the center, but the surge and rainfall impacts will be worse than for a smaller storm with greater winds at the center.

41708906_10214652477019631_7827183228120203264_n.jpg
 
I know there are a bunch of "live cams" for the NC/SC area you can watch......but, just sharing my personal favorite..... The "Frying Pan Tower".. which is a former US Coast Guard lighthouse located about 33 miles off the NC coast.



This cam is actually great to watch any time (not just during storms)... tons of marine life all around... on many days you can see manta-rays, sea rays and sharks through the usually calm and clear waters......

Watching over the last few days.... the angry seas have defiantly started already...

Interestingly... it is (or recently was) some sort of "micro - hotel"... but, not sure that's still going on...

"frying pan" nickname comes from the large "fried egg" pattern of the helicopter landing pad.... (edit: apparently this part is completely untrue - and just something I was told when drunk one night)...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frying_Pan_Shoals_Light

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/why-the-frying-pan-tower-is-the-most-dangerous-hotel-in-the-world

seems relatively calm in the cam unless its not actually live
 
Was thinking same thing I but it oh s not live must be highlights. Maybe camera feed got knocked out. Flag on tact sp definitely not love
 
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Florence now down to a Cat 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, but the pressure remains the same at 956 mbar, which is usually indicative of a Cat 3 storm - the reason for the discrepancy is that Florence is so large, so the winds are spread out over a very large area vs. a smaller storm with higher max winds at the center. Means less destructive winds at the center, but much more destructive winds over a large area and much more impact from a surge and rainfall perspective, especially since it'll be pounding a large area for 24-36 hours vs most hurricanes which only impact an area for 6-12 hours.

Track forecast is unchanged, really. Florence is 50 miles south of Morehead City and 75 miles ESE of Wilmington and moving NW at only a few mph, expected to make landfall near Wilmington in 8-12 hours and then expected to keep moving quite slowly to the WSW or even SW along the coast or just inland towards Myrtle Beach by Saturday morning and then still moving pretty slowly towards Columbia, SC by Sat night, then Greenville, SC by Sunday night. Some models still show Florence moving further SW along the coast towards Georgetown, SC (about halfway between Myrtle and Charleston), before that move inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 34.0N 76.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 34.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 35.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 39.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/0000Z 44.0N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

41678532_10214651627238387_3211825605360222208_n.jpg


Here's the updated WPC rainfall forecast for the next 5 days. Catastrophic for quite a large area.

41733093_10214651883564795_5752278054906888192_n.jpg


One piece of good news related to the lower winds is that the storm surge predictions have been decreased a bit from earlier today, as per the map...

41723624_10214652186892378_6728828200677277696_o.jpg

Florence just made landfall on Wrightsville Beach at 7:15 am at 958 millibars, a couple of miles east of downtown Wilmington, NC, as a strong Cat 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, moving quite slowly (~5 mph) and now heading west and starting to bend SW towards Myrtle Beach. Florence is forecast to bend SW an go inland just N of Myrtle Beach, but it's still possible the storm parallels the coast more down to Myrtle Beach, remaining a hurricane instead of starting to weaken by being over land.

Reports of major storm surge issues (over 6 feet) to the NE of the track, i.e., from Morehead City to Cape Hatteras, including Pamlico Sound and towns on the inland part of the Sound, like New Bern and plenty of gusts in the 90-100 mph range all over the area. Rainfall amounts are already 8-15" in most locations along the coast and up to 50 miles inland and serious flooding is underway from both the surge and the rainfall. Widespread 10-20" rains and locally up to 30+" rains are expected and even 5-10" rains are expected well inland in northern SC and much of NC. Widespread power outages have already occurred.

Below is the latest from the 7 am update, as well as the updated track map. The track shows Florence moving slowly inland or along the coast through Saturday morning, then moving slowly westward towards Columbia SC by Sunday morning, the finally accelerating towards Knoxville, TN by Monday morning, after which the worst will be over with a fast moving storm heading NE and up the Appalachians with just moderate rainfall.

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
705 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...700 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

Buoy 41064, operated by the Coastal Ocean Research and Monitoring
Program (CORMP), which is located about 50 miles east of the center
of Florence's eye, recently reported a wind gust to 112 mph (180
km/h).

A Weatherbug site located at Cape Fear Community College recently
reported a wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h), a report of a wind
gust of 91 mph (146 km/h) at the Wilmington Airport, and a NOAA
Ocean Service (NOS) observing site in Wrightsville Beach recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph
(140 km/h). The NOS site also recently reported a pressure of 959.2
mb.

The water levels in Pamlico Sound and Emerald Isle remain elevated.
These waters are expected to rise as the tides come back in. A USGS
gauge in Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 6.1 feet
above normal water levels.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

41688298_10214653658569169_2190358906356629504_n.jpg


Here's the updated total storm rainfall forecast, which does not include the 5-10" or more rain that has already fallen. Note that the NHC has said there may be locations within the 20-30" swath that get up to 40"; the record rainfall ever in NC is 27" and the record rainfall ever in SC is 18". This is unprecedented rainfall, mostly due to the slow moving nature of Florence. Even well inland in SC/NC 10-15" of rain are expected, which will lead to major to catastrophic flooding, especially given how wet this year has been.

41745292_10214653724010805_6327110855691337728_n.jpg


The usual links from the NHC, NWS, Wunderground, message boards, etc.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.../MIATCPAT1+shtml/141224.shtml?
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
https://www.33andrain.com/.../1404-cat-2-hurricane.../...
https://www.americanwx.com/.../51526-major-hurricane.../...
 
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Florence just made landfall on Wrightsville Beach at 7:15 am at 958 millibars, a couple of miles east of downtown Wilmington, NC, as a strong Cat 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, moving quite slowly (~5 mph) and now heading west and starting to bend SW towards Myrtle Beach. Florence is forecast to bend SW an go inland just N of Myrtle Beach, but it's still possible the storm parallels the coast more down to Myrtle Beach, remaining a hurricane instead of starting to weaken by being over land.

Reports of major storm surge issues (over 6 feet) to the NE of the track, i.e., from Morehead City to Cape Hatteras, including Pamlico Sound and towns on the inland part of the Sound, like New Bern and plenty of gusts in the 90-100 mph range all over the area. Rainfall amounts are already 8-15" in most locations along the coast and up to 50 miles inland and serious flooding is underway from both the surge and the rainfall. Widespread 10-20" rains and locally up to 30+" rains are expected and even 5-10" rains are expected well inland in northern SC and much of NC. Widespread power outages have already occurred.

Below is the latest from the 7 am update, as well as the updated track map. The track shows Florence moving slowly inland or along the coast through Saturday morning, then moving slowly westward towards Columbia SC by Sunday morning, the finally accelerating towards Knoxville, TN by Monday morning, after which the worst will be over with a fast moving storm heading NE and up the Appalachians with just moderate rainfall.

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
705 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...700 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

Buoy 41064, operated by the Coastal Ocean Research and Monitoring
Program (CORMP), which is located about 50 miles east of the center
of Florence's eye, recently reported a wind gust to 112 mph (180
km/h).

A Weatherbug site located at Cape Fear Community College recently
reported a wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h), a report of a wind
gust of 91 mph (146 km/h) at the Wilmington Airport, and a NOAA
Ocean Service (NOS) observing site in Wrightsville Beach recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph
(140 km/h). The NOS site also recently reported a pressure of 959.2
mb.

The water levels in Pamlico Sound and Emerald Isle remain elevated.
These waters are expected to rise as the tides come back in. A USGS
gauge in Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recently recorded 6.1 feet
above normal water levels.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

41688298_10214653658569169_2190358906356629504_n.jpg


Here's the updated total storm rainfall forecast, which includes rain that has already fallen. Note that the NHC has said there may be locations within the 20-30" swath that get up to 40"; the record rainfall ever in NC is 27" and the record rainfall ever in SC is 18". This is unprecedented rainfall, mostly due to the slow moving nature of Florence. Even well inland in SC/NC 10-15" of rain are expected, which will lead to major to catastrophic flooding, especially given how wet this year has been.

41745292_10214653724010805_6327110855691337728_n.jpg
Wrightsville Beach is 6 miles from downtown Wilmington, not a couple. Lived there.
 
As the storm turns north from SC toward TN and NC, that forecasted 6" to 10" of rain in the Appalachian chain will be devastating, with flooding and slides all over the region. The ground will already be saturated.

We're "settled" in Boone thru tomorrow afternoon, when we'll hopefully be able to head west toward Greensboro then south to Pinehurst, pending reports re: access and storm damage there. May have to look at a northern return route thru VA, with Raleigh as "Plan B."
 
As the storm turns north from SC toward TN and NC, that forecasted 6" to 10" of rain in the Appalachian chain will be devastating, with flooding and slides all over the region. The ground will already be saturated.

We're "settled" in Boone thru tomorrow afternoon, when we'll hopefully be able to head west toward Greensboro then south to Pinehurst, pending reports re: access and storm damage there. May have to look at a northern return route thru VA, with Raleigh as "Plan B."

In hindsight, SE VA would've been an easier place to go, as they're not going to get much impact from this storm. I still chuckle that DC called a state of emergency - DC was never going to be hit by this storm in any meaningful way once it was clear by Tuesday that the storm wasn't going near DC. You may need to take that VA path or else risk having your Saturday drive through very heavy rain, which should reach Boone by Saturday night.
 
In hindsight, SE VA would've been an easier place to go, as they're not going to get much impact from this storm. I still chuckle that DC called a state of emergency - DC was never going to be hit by this storm in any meaningful way once it was clear by Tuesday that the storm wasn't going near DC. You may need to take that VA path or else risk having your Saturday drive through very heavy rain, which should reach Boone by Saturday night.

Our "routine" return route is 421 from Boone thru Wilkesboro to I-40 near Winston-Salem to US-311 thru High Point to 220 South (Asheboro) to 211 east to Pinehurst. Normally a 2 3/4-hour drive.

A VA route, while north, is via smaller roads, which poses some potential other challenges.

We may look for a window during the day tomorrow to take the regular route but stay on I-40 east to Raleigh and either hole up there or scoot down Rt 1 to Phurst.

Fun times.
 
I know people in that town. New Bern has been all over the news. Really encouraged them to leave before the storm came but they said they were in good locations so it should be okay. So far they're fine, no flooding just downed trees and power out. The downtown area is an absolute mess from what I've seen online.
 
FYI, the WPC is predicting 1-2" of rain for the Philly-NJ-NYC area on Tues/Weds from the remnants of Florence as it moves NE, quickly, along the Apps from the Smoky Mts. to inland VT/NH and 4-6" of rain along the Appalachians. However, there are models showing a track closer to our area, meaning we're at some risk of at least 2-4" rains. Given how saturated this area is that would likely produce some urban and stream flooding in our area.

41752257_10214654413348038_7638290626571665408_n.jpg
 
The 11 am NHC advisory is up and Florence's winds are down to 80 mph as the hurricane has been just over land, moving across Wilmington and is now about 20 miles SW of Wilmington, moving at only 2-3 mph to the SW. Florence is predicted to chug along the NC then SC coast to Myrtle Beach from now through Saturday morning or it could even go back over the ocean a few miles offshore for a bit and then come back ashore around Myrtle Beach.

Either way we'll continue to see major storm surges to the NE of the track and torrential rains for anywhere within 50-100 miles of the NE SC and SE NC coasts for the next 24 hours, as Florence will remain a hurricane for at least the next 12 hours and a strong tropical storm after that. Florence will then speed up a bit and head west towards Columbia SC by Saturday night, Spartanburg, SC by Sunday morning and then NW towards Asheville, NC by Sunday night with winds not being as much of an issue by the time it reaches Spartanburg (will be just a depression by then with winds <40 mph), but 6-12" of rain along and to the NE of that inland track.

41752255_10214654691674996_5083119878152388608_n.jpg
 
It appears that Hilton Head will be spared from Florence. Some rain expected tomorrow afternoon but it may not be related to the hurricane.
Yep and more importantly, Charleston will be mostly spared, with 30-40 mph winds, minor storm surge and maybe 3-6" of rain which they can handle.
 
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I haven't read a single post until you quoted me. I'm not interested in a storm enough where 6 ABC thinks it is important to send a reporter to a storm that will have zero impact in Philly or Camden this weekend
This thread is 13 pages long, has nearly 400 replies and 18k views. I post one comment about local media and you are calling me out, why?

I wasn't calling you out; I was just assuming that because you posted in the thread, you had been reading it. Sorry for my error. But I think my central point is right; that 6 ABC is covering the storm because people in this area are interested in it. That's also why the major media are covering it; just look at the national news if you want an example.
 
I wasn't calling you out; I was just assuming that because you posted in the thread, you had been reading it. Sorry for my error. But I think my central point is right; that 6 ABC is covering the storm because people in this area are interested in it. That's also why the major media are covering it; just look at the national news if you want an example.
They can easily cover the story without sending a local reporter. ABC national already has several people down there. The lady 6ABC sent down adds nothing.
 
Our "routine" return route is 421 from Boone thru Wilkesboro to I-40 near Winston-Salem to US-311 thru High Point to 220 South (Asheboro) to 211 east to Pinehurst. Normally a 2 3/4-hour drive.

A VA route, while north, is via smaller roads, which poses some potential other challenges.

We may look for a window during the day tomorrow to take the regular route but stay on I-40 east to Raleigh and either hole up there or scoot down Rt 1 to Phurst.

Fun times.
Any word on Pinehurst? My brother-in-law is staying with his sister there.

His house is in Sunset Beach, a mile from the ocean.
 
I don't know how the people who stayed in that area stayed. The people I was encouraging to leave but didn't were further inland and had elevations I think around 40-50 feet and weren't in flood zones when I checked online. Not sure of the accuracy but that's what I found. The people in downtown and close surroundings were at an elevation of a few feet and closer to the riverfront.
 
Any word on Pinehurst? My brother-in-law is staying with his sister there.

His house is in Sunset Beach, a mile from the ocean.

Friends and neighbors reporting downed trees and power outages. Heavy rain and wind just moving in now, with the brunt expected tonight thru tomorrow.
 
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