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OT: Round 2 Rainstorm 1/12 (not as bad as round 1); Rainstorm 1/9-10 - Major Urban/Stream Flooding, High Winds and Coastal Flooding Likely

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You need to improve your reading comprehension. AccuWeather is fine for short term (up to 7-8 days) forecasting, but their 25, 45, and 90 day forecasts are 100% useless with little accuracy greater than what simple climatology would predict for temps and terrible accuracy for precip, as nobody on the planet is capable of predicting accurately what's going to happen on a specific day, beyond 7-8 days. Read up a little on chaos theory and its application to numerical modeling (i.e., the "butterfly effect") if you want to know why.
No one said a long term forecasts were useful. Why harp on that? Did you just want to name drop chaos theory into the thread?

That's it isn't it? You just can't stop trying to tell us how smart you are. We get it, you have three Rutgers degrees. Its even in your name so we don't forget. Lol it's getting a bit embarrassing.
 
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Central NJ is going to be a mess
 
No one said a long term forecasts were useful. Why harp on that? Did you just want to name drop chaos theory into the thread?

That's it isn't it? You just can't stop trying to tell us how smart you are. We get it, you have three Rutgers degrees. Its even in your name so we don't forget. Lol it's getting a bit embarrassing.

Oh that what the numbers are?
I always just assumed they were random.
 
No one said a long term forecasts were useful. Why harp on that? Did you just want to name drop chaos theory into the thread?

That's it isn't it? You just can't stop trying to tell us how smart you are. We get it, you have three Rutgers degrees. Its even in your name so we don't forget. Lol it's getting a bit embarrassing.
bac was implying they were by defending them and saying let people decide how to use them, which is just dumb, because they're useless, so I thought you were going there too, but perhaps I misread your intent - if so, my apologies. On the latter point, was just trying to explain why they're useless, but yes, I'm proud of my 3 RU degrees and thankful I went to RU for them - I hope everyone here who has an RU degree is proud of it and enjoyed their time at RU, although that's not always the case.
 
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bac was implying they were by defending them and saying let people decide how to use them, which is just dumb, because they're useless, so I thought you were going there too, but perhaps I misread your intent - if so, my apologies. On the latter point, was just trying to explain why they're useless, but yes, I'm proud of my 3 RU degrees and thankful I went to RU for them - I hope everyone here who has an RU degree is proud of it and enjoyed their time at RU, although that's not always the case.
Yeah, it can be hard making a go of it for the long term.
 
perhaps why you should temper when you go into your COLD PERIOD COMING in 3 weeks type threads
I always do, but predicting trends (above/below/normal for temps or precip) is way, way different from predicting temps and precip for specific days. There is some skill in the former especially in the 2-3 week out timeframe, which is all I ever post about (but they're not always right), but next to zero skill in predicting the exact weather for each day beyond about 8 days. It's pretty likely days 8-14 will be below normal and possibly well below normal - and that always makes it a bit more likely to see snow, but predicting that beyond a week is not very accurate.

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bac was implying they were by defending them and saying let people decide how to use them, which is just dumb, because they're useless, so I thought you were going there too, but perhaps I misread your intent - if so, my apologies. On the latter point, was just trying to explain why they're useless, but yes, I'm proud of my 3 RU degrees and thankful I went to RU for them - I hope everyone here who has an RU degree is proud of it and enjoyed their time at RU, although that's not always the case.
I actually have 4 RU degrees, so obviously I'm smarter than you. Let's see, perhaps my new username should be:

T2Kplus2098980002 (I think? LOL!).
 
Just went for a run, I live in Piscataway 3 miles from the RAC, roads/crosswalks/sidewalks already a mess, some huge puddles never receded from the weekend, wait til the heavy rains start, ain't nobody going to school/work in Pway, NB, Green Brook, Dunellen, Manville tomorrow
 
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bac was implying they were by defending them and saying let people decide how to use them, which is just dumb, because they're useless, so I thought you were going there too, but perhaps I misread your intent - if so, my apologies. On the latter point, was just trying to explain why they're useless, but yes, I'm proud of my 3 RU degrees and thankful I went to RU for them - I hope everyone here who has an RU degree is proud of it and enjoyed their time at RU, although that's not always the case.
Only3??? I thought for sure at least 5. No Doctorate?
 
I actually have 4 RU degrees, so obviously I'm smarter than you. Let's see, perhaps my new username should be:

T2Kplus2098980002 (I think? LOL!).
Interesting how your Linked In profile only lists 2 degrees from RU (or anywhere) - your BS in chem eng'g in 99 and your MBA in 2002. Have you now added lying to your trolling bag of tricks? Maybe just settle down and play nice for awhile.
 
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Interesting how your Linked In profile only lists 2 degrees from RU (or anywhere) - your BS in chem eng'g in 93 and your MBA in 2002. Have you now added lying to your trolling bag of tricks? Maybe just settle down and play nice for awhile.
Why would I list degrees not relevant to my career? Think, then post.
 
Interesting how your Linked In profile only lists 2 degrees from RU (or anywhere) - your BS in chem eng'g in 93 and your MBA in 2002. Have you now added lying to your trolling bag of tricks? Maybe just settle down and play nice for awhile.
Interesting how your Linked In profile only lists 2 degrees from RU (or anywhere) - your BS in chem eng'g in 93 and your MBA in 2002. Have you now added lying to your trolling bag of tricks? Maybe just settle down and play nice for awhile.

Man, dude's way older than I thought.

He should retire soon and then you guys can have these arguments over summer lunch soup at the deli 😜
 
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Already a dozen tornado reports (some with damage) from FL to VA, with significant damage from one in Walton Co. FL in the Panhandle; video in the link below. Many more to come unfortunately (very unlikely for us, although some thunder is possible).

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-panhandle-severe-storm-tornado-damage/46326146

Also, the NWS-NYC has issued a fairly rare extreme wind warning for coastal LI.

GDbGrX6XgAAobu9
 
Man, dude's way older than I thought.

He should retire soon and then you guys can have these arguments over summer lunch soup at the deli 😜
FYI - Numbers did a typo. Undergrad degree from 98 not 93. LOL!
 
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Thought this might be helpful, from the NWS - hadn't seen this before. As per my earlier post above, the NWS is predicting widespread minor to moderate river flooding all over the region, but so far, major flooding is only predicted for the Passaic, Pompton and Saddle Rivers in NNJ. That could change if we get more rain than the 2-3" expected.

We attach words like MINOR, MODERATE, and MAJOR to river
flooding. What do these words mean?

MINOR FLOODING: Minimal to no property damage, but some public
threat can be expected (e.g. inundation of roads).

MODERATE FLOODING: Some inundation of structures and roads near
streams/rivers are expected. Evacuations of people and/or the
transfer of property to higher elevations can be anticipated.

MAJOR FLOODING: Extensive inundation of structures and roads.
Evacuations of people are on a larger scale. The transfer of
property to higher elevations is needed.
 
Why would I list degrees not relevant to my career? Think, then post.
You'd be the first person I've ever seen who didn't list every degree obtained on a resume, especially on Linked In where people want to demonstrate breadth of education. You've also mentioned your CE and MBA degrees countless times on this board, but you expect us to believe you had two more and failed to never mention them? Is that what you're going with? Personally, I don't give a crap how many RU degrees you have and I'm glad you have at least 2, but you're the one who made it an issue, so do tell.
 
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You'd be the first person I've ever seen who didn't list every degree obtained on a resume, especially on Linked In where people want to demonstrate breadth of education. You've also mentioned your CE and MBA degrees countless times on this board, but you expect us to believe you had two more and failed to never mention them? Is that what you're going with? Personally, I don't give a crap how many RU degrees you have and I'm glad you have at least 2, but you're the one who made it an issue, so do tell.
More is not always better. And yes, I have mentioned my history degrees on this board numerous times (via dual degree undergrad program and further classes). I also have 6/10th of a MS in ChemE before deciding to go MBA. Thank you to Davidson for that advice!
 
.38 inches in Hillsborough

around the state generally anywhere from a quarter of inch to 3/4 of an inch has been reported
 
.38 inches in Hillsborough

around the state generally anywhere from a quarter of inch to 3/4 of an inch has been reported
Leaving Somerset around 545-550
You think the roads will be flooded then?

Also, how will the rain & wind be at that time
 
most of the rivers will not crest until tomorrow morning or early afternoon but likely to hit flood stage after midnight

Flood Warning​

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in New Jersey...

Raritan River At Bound Brook affecting Somerset and Middlesex
Counties.



For the Raritan River...including Bound Brook...Moderate flooding is
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/phi.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 400 AM EST.

&&

NJC023-035-100900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FL.W.0012.240110T0920Z-240111T1225Z/
/BDKN4.2.ER.240110T0920Z.240110T1800Z.240111T0624Z.NO/
400 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Raritan River at Bound Brook.

* WHEN...From late tonight to Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, Backyard and low areas are protected by
levees and the flood wall. Without the levees or if there is a
breach in the levees, minor flooding will occur.
At 30.0 feet, Main Street is protected by flap valves/sluice
gates. This level triggers the gate closures to protect Main
Street.
At 33.0 feet, A large portion of Bound Brook is protected by the
flood reduction project. Pump station operations become critical,
at this stage, for the continued protection of the borough.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 3:15 PM EST Tuesday the stage was 19.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late tonight to a crest of 32.0 feet early tomorrow
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday
morning.
- Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
32.0 feet on 07/07/1984.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

Stream Fld Observed Fcsts (1 pm) Crest
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Wed Thu Stg Time Date

Raritan River
Bound Brook 28.0 19.1 Tue 3 pm 32.0 25.3 32.0 1pm 1/10


&&

LAT...LON 4057 7456 4056 7448 4049 7438 4045 7442
4051 7452 4052 7456


$$

Kruzdlo




Flood Warning​

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
358 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in New Jersey...

Raritan River At Manville affecting Somerset and Middlesex
Counties.



For the Raritan River...including Manville...Moderate flooding is
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/phi.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 400 AM EST.

&&

NJC023-035-100900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FL.W.0011.240110T0854Z-240111T0629Z/
/MNVN4.2.ER.240110T0854Z.240110T1800Z.240111T0028Z.NO/
358 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Raritan River at Manville.

* WHEN...From late tonight to early Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, At this level, inundation begins in Dukes
Park in Manville.
At 12.0 feet, Cautionary/Action stage is reached. Roads and trails
flood within Dukes Park.
At 13.0 feet, Southside Avenue in Somerville floods.
At 15.0 feet, Dukes Parkway begins to flood in Hillsborough.
At 16.0 feet, Lincoln Avenue in the Lost Valley section of
Manville floods.
At 17.0 feet, Street and roadway flooding increases across the
Manville area. The Van Veghten Bridge and Main Street in Manville
are flooded as well as 5th Street in Somerville. The amount of
flooding can vary from event to event and can be affected by the
amount of water in the Millstone.
At 18.0 feet, East Dukes Parkway and several bridges in Manville
are flooded. Roads throughout the area are closed due to high
water. The amount of flooding can vary from event to event and can
be affected by the amount of water in the Millstone.
At 19.0 feet, South Bridge Street in Somerville is closed. The
amount of flooding can vary from event to event and can be
affected by the amount of water in the Millstone.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 3:15 PM EST Tuesday the stage was 5.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late tonight to a crest of 18.0 feet early tomorrow
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow
evening.
- Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
17.9 feet on 06/23/1972.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

Stream Fld Observed Fcsts (1 pm) Crest
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Wed Thu Stg Time Date

Raritan River
Manville 14.0 5.1 Tue 3 pm 18.0 8.7 18.0 1pm 1/10


&&

LAT...LON 4058 7464 4057 7456 4052 7456 4054 7471


$$

Kruzdlo




Flood Warning​

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
356 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in New Jersey...

North Branch Raritan River At Raritan affecting Somerset County.



For the Raritan River...including Raritan...Moderate flooding is
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/phi.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 400 AM EST.

&&

NJC035-100900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FL.W.0010.240110T0406Z-240111T0000Z/
/RRTN4.2.ER.240110T0406Z.240110T1200Z.240110T1800Z.NO/
356 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...North Branch Raritan River at Raritan.

* WHEN...From this evening to tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 7.0 feet, Minor flooding begins upstream on Black
River Road.
At 10.0 feet, Flooding occurs along Old York Road and in North
Branch Village.
At 13.0 feet, The first evacuations begin in Village of North
Branch at Route 28 and Vaanderveer Avenue.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 3:15 PM EST Tuesday the stage was 3.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late this evening to a crest of 12.8 feet tomorrow morning.
It will then fall below flood stage early tomorrow afternoon.
- Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
12.7 feet on 08/13/1955.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

Stream Fld Observed Fcsts (1 pm) Crest
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Wed Thu Stg Time Date

North Branch Rar
Raritan 10.0 3.3 Tue 3 pm 10.0 4.6 12.8 7am 1/10


&&

LAT...LON 4063 7470 4062 7463 4058 7464 4054 7471


$$

Kruzdlo




Flood Warning​

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
353 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in New Jersey...

Millstone River At Blackwells Mills affecting Somerset County.



For the Millstone River...including Blackwells Mills...Moderate
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/phi.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 400 AM EST.

&&

NJC035-100900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FL.W.0009.240110T0600Z-240112T0600Z/
/BKWN4.2.ER.240110T0600Z.240111T0000Z.240112T0000Z.NO/
353 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Millstone River at Blackwells Mills.

* WHEN...From late tonight to early Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, The Griggstown Causeway is closed due to
flooding.
At 7.0 feet, Several more causeways are closed due to flooding.
At 9.0 feet, Flood stage reached with flooding now along River
Road in Blackwells Mills and S. River Street in Millstone. Base of
Route 533 bridge floods. River Road between Yorktown and Amsterdam
is subject to closure. Canal Road near Suydam Road floods.
At 10.0 feet, The D&R Canal is flooded by the Millstone River.
At 13.0 feet, Washington Street and several businesses are flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 3:15 PM EST Tuesday the stage was 3.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
just after midnight tonight to a crest of 13.0 feet tomorrow
evening. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday
evening.
- Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
12.9 feet on 05/30/1984.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

Stream Fld Observed Fcsts (1 pm) Crest
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Wed Thu Stg Time Date

Millstone River
Blackwells Mill 9.0 3.0 Tue 3 pm 12.7 10.4 13.0 7pm 1/10


&&
 
Leaving Somerset around 545-550
You think the roads will be flooded then?

Also, how will the rain & wind be at that time
rain will be moderate to heavy at that time and will be heavy leaving the game...wind should start to pick up after 6

there definitely can be some minor highway flooding so you should use caution yet the flooding impacts are much more likely to hit later
 
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Leaving Somerset around 545-550
You think the roads will be flooded then?

Also, how will the rain & wind be at that time
Unlikely any urban flooding before 6-7 pm when the really heavy squall line bands start raking the whole area and will continue to do so off and on through 1-2 am; worst winds will likely be about 9 pm to 1-2 am, but will still be gusting to 30-40 mph from 6-9 pm in the RAC area.

For the game, it's hard to predict urban road flooding, but if we see some 1/2" of rain per hour rates from 6-9 pm, there will likely be some roads getting flooded, so the drive home is going to suck for many. Also, there won't be any stream/river flooding before about midnight (with most river flooding going on later on Wednesday into Thursday), so that shouldn't be an issue for people going to the game.
 
Crazy weather event here in the Boone NC area. Finally passed thru about an hour ago, now heading into central NC. We had 4" snow from Sunday. Then heavy freezing rain from this system, turning to heavy rain before trailing off. Now starting to freeze up, with snow showers thru midday tomorrow before clearing. Flooding, some slides into roadways, trees down, power outages, tornados popping up.... Now forecast indicating a conveyor-belt scenario with two more systems thru early next week. Good luck up there in NJ.
 
Crazy weather event here in the Boone NC area. Finally passed thru about an hour ago, now heading into central NC. We had 4" snow from Sunday. Then heavy freezing rain from this system, turning to heavy rain before trailing off. Now starting to freeze up, with snow showers thru midday tomorrow before clearing. Flooding, some slides into roadways, trees down, power outages, tornados popping up.... Now forecast indicating a conveyor-belt scenario with two more systems thru early next week. Good luck up there in NJ.

Sounds like the worst of all worlds. Good weather for hunkering down. Stay safe!
 
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