So, for the 00Z models, the Euro moves back to a Wilmington, NC landfall (was there for several runs, earlier; was 40 miles SE of there last run), while the UK remains about the same with a Morehead City, NC landfall; the UK then takes Florence inland 150-200 miles into north central NC, where the storm slows/stalls, while the Euro, which was doing the same thing for days, now takes Florence along the NC coast, just inland for 2 days, moving SE into SC and then towards Augusta, GA - that's a big departure for the Euro.
The GFS and CMC both continue with the idea of bringing Florence to almost the exact same point as the Euro/UK, just offshore the OBX, but then both models stall the storm there and have it meander around the OBX for several days before finally making landfall and moving inland and dissipating.
Not really that different - they just stall at different times, but clearly the impacts would be very different, with all of the models hammering the coast and just inland for awhile, while they all do fairly different things after that, meaning the location of the torrential rains is still greatly in question.
I'll take the Euro/UK for landfall, based on past better accuracy and the NHC which has stuck with a solution like the Euro/UK for days (many other models support that idea), but obviously they could be wrong. Not sure what the NHC will do now, though, post landfall, given solutions all over the place. They'll probably make very minor changes to the track up to about landfall and then keep a wider-than-normal cone of uncertainty after that point and hope the next model suite shows more consensus. Tough job for them.
Once again, though, all of these solutions lead to minimal impacts for the NJ/NY/LI area. Stay tuned.
Last night's 00Z models (7 pm EST data inputs) have diverged somewhat near and after landfall, i.e., at 72 hours out and beyond, as per the discussion below. The NHC didn't make major changes, as I kind of expected - I think they're hoping to see more consensus today.
For now, the NHC 5 am advisory shows a track a little to the SW of where it was last night with landfall of a Cat 4 hurricane with 130-140 mph winds about 10-20 miles SW of where it was, i.e., about 10 miles SW of Jacksonville, NC vs. 10 miles NE of Jacksonville at 11 pm last night. Landfall was also slowed down a bit, from late Thursday night until very early Friday morning (1-3 am), with Florence weakening fairly rapidly to a weak TS within a day, but still producing huge amounts of rain.
In addition the new advisory has Florence moving a bit further SW after landfall, slowing and then nearly stalling by Sunday morning around Greensboro, NC, vs. being about 30-40 miles NE of Greensboro, at the NC/VA border, last night at that time. This has significant impacts on where the torrential 10-20"+ rains will be, obviously.
With regard to the 00Z models, the Euro moves back to a Wilmington, NC landfall (was there for several runs, earlier; was 40 miles SE of there last run), while the UK remains about the same with a Morehead City, NC landfall; the UK then takes Florence inland 150-200 miles into north central NC, where the storm slows/stalls, while the Euro, which was doing the same thing for days, now takes Florence along the NC coast, just inland for 2 days, moving SE into SC and then towards Augusta, GA - that's a big departure for the Euro.
The GFS and CMC both continue with the idea of bringing Florence to almost the exact same point as the Euro/UK, just offshore the OBX, but then both models stall the storm there and have it meander around the OBX for several days before finally making landfall and moving inland and dissipating. Also, note that the "new and improved," but still experimenta FV3-GFS, looks very similar to the Euro, with landfall near Wilmington and then a move inland, slowly towards NE SC/Augusta, GA.
These two camps aren't really that different in the big picture - they just stall at different times, but clearly the impacts would be very different, with all of the models hammering the coast and just inland for awhile, while they all do fairly different things after that, meaning the location of the torrential rains is still greatly in question. That's why people from the NE half of SC to all of NC to much of VA need to keep watching, since Florence's track, post landfall is so much in question - and which is why the NHC didn't really shrink the track error bars near/after landfall, as I kind of expected given the model spread.
The NHC track is below and here are the forecast positions/winds:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 26.4N 64.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 27.2N 66.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 30.5N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 34.3N 77.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
