Umm... No, "they" don't. If you don't have any sort of property lien (mortgage, etc.) then you don't have to have flood insurance.
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Florence's weakening stopped overnight, with Florence remaining a top end Cat-2 hurricane with 110 mph winds (Cat 3 is 111 mph or more). Florence has become quite a large storm, as hurricane force winds extend 80 mile out from the center, while the TS force winds extend 195 miles out from the center. Florence has been moving about 16-18 mph, but has slowed to 15 mph and is expected to slow to 5-7 mph during the day, as it approaches the NC coast, meaning Florence is likely to have hurricane force winds on the coast by about 8 pm tonight and to actually make landfall somewhere between 6 am and noon Friday, around Wilmington NC (more specifically on Wrightsville Beach, a few miles SE of Wilmington) with 100-110 mph winds, if the storm follows the center of the NHC track.
Obviously, there are still error bars around this track (+/-50 miles), so landfall could still be anywhere from Georgetown, SC (25 miles SW of Myrtle Beach SC and 50 miles NE of Charleston, SC) to Morehead City, NC, but the Wilmington area is a very good bet. Regardless of where the storm makes landfall, a slow moving hurricane moving W to WSW near/along the NC/SC coast is going to produce catastrophic rainfalls for the coast and up to 50-100 miles inland (20-30" near the coast and 10-20" up to 100 miles inland) and major to catastrophic storm surges along this part of the NC/SC coasts of 6-13 feet. There will also be some tornadoes, generally to the N of the center of the storm track.
The center of the NHC track shows Florence moving slowly SW along the NC/SC coast or just inland through Saturday morning, followed by a WSW movement into central SC, as a tropical storm then a tropical depression, through Saturday and then a W, then NW movement towards Greenville, SC through Sunday. The main thread during this time is obviously 10-20" rains near the track and 5-10" rains in the western half of NC and NW SC.
With regard to the 00Z models last night (7 pm EST data inputs), there continues to be pretty good consenus on the general track of Florence, as every major model brings Florence to a landfall within 25-50 miles of Wilmington, although the do diverge a bit after landfall.
The Euro shows Florence slowly moving SW along the SC coast as a Cat 1 hurricane through Saturday night, going inland around Charleston, then moving to Atlanta, then Greenville, SC as a tropical depression. This is a significant deviation from the NHC track, which starts going inland between Wilmington and the SC/NC border, which is generally what the UK, GFS and CMC all show. These models then bring the storm slowly across central SC from Friday night through Sunday, which is what the NHC track shows.
Here's the WPC rainfall forecast, which is scary..
And another scary graphic of the storm surge, along with the NHC surge amounts in table form...
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Umm... No, "they" don't. If you don't have any sort of property lien (mortgage, etc.) then you don't have to have flood insurance.
Was any explanation given for why the storm is weakening? Cooler water temps?Florence is weakening and is no longer expected to strengthen further prior to landfall. It will still be a strong storm but at this time no higher than Cat 3 is expected.
Was any explanation given for why the storm is weakening? Cooler water temps?
Was any explanation given for why the storm is weakening? Cooler water temps?
Trailer homes, manufactured housing (e.g., "double wides") are very common. Some of those houses built in factories are more solid than stick built houses, and some of them are like houses of cards. We lived in Wilmington, NC 1990-92 in a new development, and the house we rented was a flimsy piece of crap. Glad we never had to deal with a hurricane.Looking on Google Maps, I noticed several mobile home parks in towns on the Outer Banks, the only place I've seen them along the entire east coast. You've got to wonder what kind of building standards they have in North Carolina. Those things will be ripped up like cardboard boxes by 110 mph winds.
Was any explanation given for why the storm is weakening? Cooler water temps?
I understood the water it's over now (Gulf Stream) is the warmest it has encountered. Last night one of the TV Met's said the eye wall was being affected by dryer than expected air along it's southern edge which broke up some of the bands as the storm rotated.
Someone here will be able to say whether that makes sense.
This live cam is pretty addicting to watch. And scary.I know there are a bunch of "live cams" for the NC/SC area you can watch......but, just sharing my personal favorite..... The "Frying Pan Tower".. which is a former US Coast Guard lighthouse located about 33 miles off the NC coast.
This cam is actually great to watch any time (not just during storms)... tons of marine life all around... on many days you can see manta-rays, sea rays and sharks through the usually calm and clear waters......
Watching over the last few days.... the angry seas have defiantly started already...
Interestingly... it is (or recently was) some sort of "micro - hotel"... but, not sure that's still going on...
"frying pan" nickname comes from the large "fried egg" pattern of the helicopter landing pad.... (edit: apparently this part is completely untrue - and just something I was told when drunk one night)...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frying_Pan_Shoals_Light
https://www.cntraveler.com/story/why-the-frying-pan-tower-is-the-most-dangerous-hotel-in-the-world
This live cam is pretty addicting to watch. And scary.
There was, yesterday, a huge slot of dry air along the southwest periphery of Florence that was pretty disruptive. I mentioned it in a previous post in this thread, last night.
CNN been using a feed from that Frying Pan cam... had the owner on (who is sensibly in Charlotte NC).. he bought that light station from the government when they started shutting them down.This live cam is pretty addicting to watch. And scary.
CNN been using a feed from that Frying Pan cam... had the owner on (who is sensibly in Charlotte NC).. he bought that light station from the government when they started shutting them down.
Just an hour or so ago that flag was not in tatters. He had just bought it.. some special make.. in hopes it would remain in one piece.
yeppers... added a link to a story about it.. think he's trying to sell it now.. cost him $85KDidn't he intend to use it as a B&B?
CNN been using a feed from that Frying Pan cam... had the owner on (who is sensibly in Charlotte NC).. he bought that light station from the government when they started shutting them down.
Just an hour or so ago that flag was not in tatters. He had just bought it.. some special make.. in hopes it would remain in one piece.
news story profile on the light
CNN is much worse where it comes to Trump coverage. Just saw them do a story on the Hurricane Maria PR death count... they made ZERO effort to balance it.. citing only the most HIGH estimates of death count and no effort to suggest there is other research that uses other more stringent counting and shows way less thna half of that 3,000 figure.Watch FOX News for entertainment - do not rely on it for real news or information
Watch FOX News for entertainment - do not rely on it for real news or information
Could be a repeat of the Texas Tower off our coast. Hope he is insured.yeppers... added a link to a story about it.. think he's trying to sell it now.. cost him $85K
30 miles offshore.. best thing I heard in that piece was a fisherman who docked his boat to it saying he can sleep there.. then get to the gulf stream in 30 minutes instead of 3 hours... the metal corrosion is severe.. 30 miles out.. I wonder if he can open a casino there.
Crazy thing is the one in the south Pacific that is about to slam Philippines is the size of all of EuropeLook at the friggin' size of this thing!
Could be a repeat of the Texas Tower off our coast. Hope he is insured.
No major or even minor changes to the forecast track or intensity with the 11 am NHC advisory. Winds are down to 105 mph, but the storm is definitely better organized than this morning and is expected to strengthen back to at least 110 mph and maybe 115 mph as it goes over the deep, warm Gulf stream in the next 6-12 hours. We'll see. Here's the updated track and intensities; the rainfall and storm surge graphics are about the same.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 33.4N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 33.9N 76.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 15/0000Z 34.1N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 34.0N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 36.9N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 40.3N 79.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP