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A new all-time single storm record for NC was just set with Swansboro, NC (about halfway between Morehead City and Jacksonville, NC) recording 30.6" of rain so far in the storm, eclipsing the old record of 24.1" set during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. And they expect another ~10" of rain. This was a CoCoRahs (human) report, so hopefully it's correct (radar history indicates it's in the ballpark).
Storm rainfall totals so far. And 10-15" still to come for many areas in NE SC and SE NC, where 10-25" have already fallen and 5-10" more to come for central and western sections of NC (and SW VA). This ain't over, especially with regard to stream and river flooding, which will almost certainly be record-breaking for several river networks.
Good Luck!Drove west out of Boone this morning, headed north up I-81 then east on I-64 to Waynesboro, VA. Making a big arc around Flo. Heading east tomorrow am then dropping down south into Durham or Raleigh, then on to Pinehurst.
Widespread power outages in Moore County. Lots of trees down. Heavy rain continuing thru Sun afternoon. Power may not recover until Mon-Tues.
Boone is preparing for heavy rains and flooding thru Monday. App State's shut down until Wed. Wind gusts up to 55 mph expected on Rich Mountain, above the town.
As of 8 pm, Florence is still a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, but as I've been saying the winds are not the story, the rains are, as well as the resulting ongoing and coming life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and stream/river flooding. Florence is about 60 miles W of Myrtle Beach and has been crawling at 2-3 mph all day (walking speed) and will continue its slow movement to Columbia, SC by tomorrow morning and then should accelerate a bit reaching Greenville, SC by Sunday afternoon and then will finally accelerate further, reaching western WV by Monday afternoon, before passing by just to the N of NYC on Tuesday afternoon.
The story is still the torrential rainfall in NE SC and large swaths of SE NC from the coast to well inland, where 15-25" (or more) have fallen and another 10-15" could fall. And then 6-10" (and locally up to 15") of rain is likely to fall tonight and tomorrow in much of NE SC, central and western NC and even SW VA. And all of this rain eventually drains through the streams and rivers of NC and NE SC to the ocean and most of these are eventually forecast to reach major flood stage, with many likely reaching all-time record flood levels by Monday/Tuesday. Catastrophic flooding will not end with the end of the rainfall.
With regard to rainfall still to come, below is the mesoscale graphic from the WPC covering the next 6-12 hours. Clearly, extreme flash flooding is expected to continue in the area in red and major flash flooding is expected in the area in purple.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/ref…/MIATCPAT1+shtml/151752.shtml?
Here is a graphic showing the rain still to come, from the NHC. Still some very large amounts across NE SC and coastal/SE NC, as well as inland starting tonight into tomorrow.
And finally, here are two examples of what is expected with regard to flooding. First, is the graphic for the Lumber River in Lumberton, which suffered catastrophic flooding in 2016 after hurricane Matthew. That storm set the all-time record flood level of 24.0' and that river is now forecast to reach 24.7', which would be even worse than seen for Matthew. That also means that the flooding will likely close I-95 in both directions, as occurred during Matthew. Just imagine I-95 being closed and what that means to travel and commerce.
Second is the graphic for the Cape Fear River, which is predicted to crest early next week at 25.2', about 40 miles N of Wilmington, NC, well above the 23.5' all-time record and 12 feet above flood stage. That's catastrophic flooding that will kill people who don't evacuate to high ground in that area. The same is going to be true for many of these rivers at many points from well inland to the coast.
This link allows one to click on all of these rivers to see the predicted level of flooding expected for each.
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/
Lastly, here's the updated track, which is becoming less important now. Eventually, we should expect to see a windy, rainy day in the NJ area on Tuesday with a few inches of rain being possible. Normally, this would be a non-issue, but some flooding is possible, given antecedent saturated conditions.
Drove west out of Boone this morning, headed north up I-81 then east on I-64 to Waynesboro, VA. Making a big arc around Flo. Heading east tomorrow am then dropping down south into Durham or Raleigh, then on to Pinehurst.
Widespread power outages in Moore County. Lots of trees down. Heavy rain continuing thru Sun afternoon. Power may not recover until Mon-Tues.
Boone is preparing for heavy rains and flooding thru Monday. App State's shut down until Wed. Wind gusts up to 55 mph expected on Rich Mountain, above the town.
You've been giving us the best coverage I've seen anywhere of the storm. Please continue to do that so long as the storm is causing severe effects, which it clearly still is. And given how much rain NJ has had, I think we need to keep an eye on the wheel the storm will be making inland. As you say, even 2-3 inches of rain could be a problem.
Thanks, that's really nice of you to say. I enjoy doing this, but it is a fair amount of work, especially because I share the same info here, on the other site, on Facebook, via an email list for friends/family and an internal email list at work' plus I post on 2 weather boards (not the comprehensive info I post here, as that would be spam there, especially since most posters there are up on this stuff). It's not all identical, but it's similar - and really annoying sometimes when I make a mistake or forget to cut/paste something. Been seriously thinking of starting a separate FB page or blog that I could just link to here to avoid/reduce duplicate efforts - the barrier to that is that I'm not that tech savvy. We'll see...
you were lucky not to watchLost power here in Greenville-Spartanburg. Rain has yet to arrive, but the winds arrived last night and are continuing to cause outages everywhere. Looks like I will have to hear about the game via the game thread.
As of 8 pm, Florence is still a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, but as I've been saying the winds are not the story, the rains are, as well as the resulting ongoing and coming life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and stream/river flooding. Florence is about 60 miles W of Myrtle Beach and has been crawling at 2-3 mph all day (walking speed) and will continue its slow movement to Columbia, SC by tomorrow morning and then should accelerate a bit reaching Greenville, SC by Sunday afternoon and then will finally accelerate further, reaching western WV by Monday afternoon, before passing by just to the N of NYC on Tuesday afternoon.
The story is still the torrential rainfall in NE SC and large swaths of SE NC from the coast to well inland, where 15-25" (or more) have fallen and another 10-15" could fall. And then 6-10" (and locally up to 15") of rain is likely to fall tonight and tomorrow in much of NE SC, central and western NC and even SW VA. And all of this rain eventually drains through the streams and rivers of NC and NE SC to the ocean and most of these are eventually forecast to reach major flood stage, with many likely reaching all-time record flood levels by Monday/Tuesday. Catastrophic flooding will not end with the end of the rainfall.
With regard to rainfall still to come, below is the mesoscale graphic from the WPC covering the next 6-12 hours. Clearly, extreme flash flooding is expected to continue in the area in red and major flash flooding is expected in the area in purple.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/ref…/MIATCPAT1+shtml/151752.shtml?
Here is a graphic showing the rain still to come, from the NHC. Still some very large amounts across NE SC and coastal/SE NC, as well as inland starting tonight into tomorrow.
And finally, here are two examples of what is expected with regard to flooding. First, is the graphic for the Lumber River in Lumberton, which suffered catastrophic flooding in 2016 after hurricane Matthew. That storm set the all-time record flood level of 24.0' and that river is now forecast to reach 24.7', which would be even worse than seen for Matthew. That also means that the flooding will likely close I-95 in both directions, as occurred during Matthew. Just imagine I-95 being closed and what that means to travel and commerce.
Second is the graphic for the Cape Fear River, which is predicted to crest early next week at 25.2', about 40 miles N of Wilmington, NC, well above the 23.5' all-time record and 12 feet above flood stage. That's catastrophic flooding that will kill people who don't evacuate to high ground in that area. The same is going to be true for many of these rivers at many points from well inland to the coast.
This link allows one to click on all of these rivers to see the predicted level of flooding expected for each.
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/
Lastly, here's the updated track, which is becoming less important now. Eventually, we should expect to see a windy, rainy day in the NJ area on Tuesday with a few inches of rain being possible. Normally, this would be a non-issue, but some flooding is possible, given antecedent saturated conditions.
As of 5 am, Florence is now a tropical depression about 20 miles SW of Columbia SC and the NHC has issued its last advisory on the storm. The storm is finally moving faster at about 8 mph and accelerating and will be near the SW tip of VA by Monday morning and then will jet across NJ, LI and eastern New England by Tuesday, bringing 1-2" of rain to the Philly-NYC corridor and a bit more north of there.
Only have a few minutes and will be out all day, so will just go ahead and post the last NHC advisory on Florence below, as well as the last track and expected additional rainfall graphics. Today parts of central/western NC, NE SC, and SW VA are under the gun for 6-10" of rain (locally up to 15"), which will bring serious to possibly catastrophic flash flooding to some of those areas. The additional 3-6" of rain for the areas closer to the coast that have already received 20-30"+ of rain will only make things worse.
From here on out the big story will be the growing stream and river flooding, which will reach major to all-time record levels for most of the major rivers in central/SE NC and far NE SC. In many places the flooding will be catastrophic between now and mid/late next week (it takes a few days for a river watershed to receive all the rainwater and runoff). For info on river flooding, the link below is a great resource - just click on the purple dots on the map to get flood stage info for rivers undergoing major flooding now or in the next few days.
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 81.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence
was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast
track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas
today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...
Central and western North Carolina into far southwest Virginia...
An additional 5 to 10 inches, with storm total accumulations of 15
to 20 inches in western North Carolina. These rainfall amounts will
produce catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river
flooding, and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.
Southern North Carolina into Northern South Carolina...
An additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. This rainfall will
result in additional flash flooding while also exacerbating the
river flooding. Storm total accumulations of 30 to 40 inches in
southeast North Carolina.
West-central Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of
Charlottesville...
2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina
and eastern South Carolina today and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
Still heavy rainfall in much of central/western NC, into SW VA, with another 3-6" possible tonight into Monday, as Florence accelerates away from the area. Keep in mind, though, for hilly/mountainous areas in western NC/SE VA, it only takes 3-5" of rain to cause significant flash flooding, due to topographic factors; mudslides are also possible.
The good news is that the rains are finally over for most of SE NC and NE SC, where 15-35" of rain fell (see graphic), the much more significant bad news, however, is that catastrophic river flooding is ongoing and getting worse in most of those locations. Evacuations are ongoing in anticipation of many rivers reaching major to all-time record flood levels and countless roads and highways are closed, including about 70 miles of I-95. These are life-threatening conditions to people who don't evacuate from areas inundated by 5-10 feet of water.
With regard to the river flooding, TWC has a great summary of ongoing and expected flooding, which I copied below.
https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...t-rain-flood-carolinas-virginia-west-virginia
- N.E. Cape Fear River at Chinquapin, North Carolina: This location set a new record flood level on Sunday, topping the previous record of 23.5 feet from Hurricane Floyd in 1999. "Devastating flooding" occurs across the county once the river reaches 23 feet, according to the National Weather Service. The river may rise a few more feet into early this week.
- Trent River at Trenton, North Carolina: A new record crest was set on Sunday, surpassing Hurricane Floyd's flood level of 28.42 feet. The entire town of Trenton is flooded at this level.
- Neuse River at Kinston, North Carolina: Major flooding (21 feet) is ongoing, and it may rise to near 25 feet during the week ahead. Homes and businesses begin flooding when the river reaches 21 feet. This would be just over two feet below the Floyd 1999 crest, and more than 3 feet below the Matthew 2016 crest.
- N.E. Cape Fear River at Burgaw, North Carolina: Major flooding (16 feet) is ongoing, and record flooding could by Monday or Tuesday. The current flood of record is a crest of 22.5 feet from Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The National Weather Service noted that homes are flooded when the river reaches 16 feet, and many more take on water as it rises toward the record height.
- Lumber River at Lumberton, North Carolina: Major flooding (19 feet) is ongoing, and the level is now close to Hurricane Matthew's record of 24.39 feet. Flooding of homes can begin once the river reaches 17 feet. Interstate 95 has been closed between mile markers 13 and 22.
- Little River at Manchester, North Carolina: Major flooding (27 feet) is ongoing. The river could rise above Hurricane Matthew's record flood level of 32.19 feet early this week.
- Cape Fear River at Fayetteville, North Carolina: Major flooding (58 feet) is forecast by Monday or Tuesday. It could rise to its fifth-highest level on record if it tops Matthew's flood of 58.94 feet.
- Waccamaw River near Conway, South Carolina: Major flooding (14 feet) may occur by Tuesday, and record flooding is possible by the latter part of this week. The previous flood of record is 17.87 feet from Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Water begins to surround homes when the river reaches 13 feet. Records here date to at least 1894.
- Major flooding is also forecast on the Little Pee Dee River at Galivants Ferry, South Carolina, the Neuse River near Goldsboro, North Carolina, the Yadkin River at Elkin, North Carolina, and the Dan River in southwestern Virginia.
Here's the link to the SE US river/flood page - people can simply click on the link then get the map of rivers in major flood stage (purple), then click on the purple dot to get the flood forecast for the next several days. I included a couple of these maps below. The first one is of the Lumber River in Lumberton, NC, which is forecast to reach 25.7 feet vs. the 24.2' all-time record from Matthew, which was catastrophic, and the river is forecast to stay over 24' for several days. The 2nd one is a similar graphic for the Cape Fear River near Jacksonville, NC, showing the river forecast to well exceed the all-time record.
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/
And below is a graphic showing the rainfall that has fallen through about noon today. All time state records have been set in both NC (33.9" vs. old record of 23.8") and SC (18" vs. 17.8" old record). After that are tables showing rainfall for specific cities in NC/SC through 2 pm today. The last graphic is the forecast amount of rain to still come, from the WPC as of 4 pm.
I notice NJ is no longer in green on the bottom map showing rainfall forecasts for the next 48 hours. This seems like good news.
I notice from the rainfall maps that the Research Triangle Park area was not hit that badly; this storm was not like Fran, back in 1996, which was considered at least a hundred-year storm for that area, and which knocked down a lot of trees and knocked out power for a long time. A lot of houses in the area have wells, and so the loss of electricity meant no water. I was down there in that period, and it was a rough time for all.
Yep, most of the rain should be to the N/NW of the remnants of Florence as it motors through our area, with maybe an inch or so in the Philly-NYC area (with some >1" amounts well to the N/W and areas towards the shore getting less). But we're not far from getting a bit more than an inch, as per the WPC map, which is better than the one I posted above.
Also, the Raleigh area has had 4-8" so far and can expect another 2-4", so they could reach 10+" in total. May not be catastrophic flooding, but will be substantial flooding in the area.
where is the Buffalo game weather thread...timing of the front and whether it stalls looks to be an issue although its not like any activity would be heavy.
I honestly was so fed up about the Kansas game that I had no interest in it yesterday - no problem if you want to start one. If you don't, I'll start one late tonight...
I don't get it. You left the board high and dry in the middle of a snowstorm and them bitch when someone else starts a football weather thread. Now you are fed up with the team performance so you don't start one and now say let someone else do it
I notice NJ is no longer in green on the bottom map showing rainfall forecasts for the next 48 hours. This seems like good news.
I notice from the rainfall maps that the Research Triangle Park area was not hit that badly; this storm was not like Fran, back in 1996, which was considered at least a hundred-year storm for that area, and which knocked down a lot of trees and knocked out power for a long time. A lot of houses in the area have wells, and so the loss of electricity meant no water. I was down there in that period, and it was a rough time for all.
Power outage aside, the storm was a bust in my area.
I think maybe you should re-read his post and then yours...Would need to know where you are to evaluate your statement...
Was hoping you'd take the VA route - far safer, although it's still going to be pretty damn rainy in Waynesboro on Sunday into Monday with 2-4", but likely only minor flooding. And don't try to get back to Pinehurst until at least late Sunday, as they'll be getting 6-10" through late Sunday into early Monday (and Raleigh will be getting 3-6").
I think maybe you should re-read his post and then yours...
Dude says storm was a bust in his area... and you need to "evaluate" that direct observation? Please keep in mind, I ain't one of your haters in weather threads... I'm not just giving you a hard time.. your comment just struck me as very odd.
Power outage aside, the storm was a bust in my area.