Just wanted to say a quick thanks to all the posters who said some nice things about my weather posts over the last couple of days. I really appreciate it. Your "like" counts all went up by 1, lol...
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the para NAM brings sleet for a period for central jersey proper and coast
Well let the party begin for those mega snowlovers. I don't get the hardons for these folks who bask in seeing over 12 inches. It's overkill, And by Thursday they will be licking their chops on Saturday's system. Of course best of luck to those who get in traffic accidents, have property damage and suffer heartattacks from this storm.
Well, Mt. Holly answered my question of why no blizzard watches for the NJ coast: basically, they're not confident enough it'll be all snow when the worst winds hit and may just issue a wind warning. With such screaming winds, they're thinking there might/will be significant sleet/rain at the coast and inland a bit. That hasn't shown up on the snowy models, but the NAM had some of that.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Major 12 to 15 hour winter storm to produce high impact event
most of our area between roughly 3 AM and 3 PM Tuesday***
2AM Tuesday: As a forecaster, my suggestion from the vast majority
of the forecast information is that you want to be, wherever
you can be safe and comfortable for 18 hours, by 2 AM Tuesday,
with subsequent gradual recovery and resumption of traveling
life starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night. This is likely to
be the heaviest snowstorm of the winter, so far, for all of our
area except the ACY area to Sussex County DE storm in early
January.
Hazards:
1) Snowfall:
Warning 8-18" much of e PA and NNJ with blowing and drifting a
possible problem. Small chc of a period of sleet near I-78
around or shortly after sunrise. Snowfall of 1-2"/hour possible
for several hours. Above average confidence.
Warning 6-12" along I-95 PHL to ILG and extreme ne MD where
several hours of sleet between 5 am and 10 am could knock down
snow amounts close to 6 inches. More details tomorrow when we
are more certain of thermal profiles
Watch: Greater than 6" possible. Many complications can occur
in the eastern NJ. More details tomorrow when we can maybe figure
out the reliable expected thermal profiles. The potential is to
change to sleet or rain as temperatures attempt to rise to near
40 for a few hours near or after sunrise when ne winds hammer
the coast with 50 to 60 MPH.
2) Coastal flooding: see coastal flood section.
3) Wind: Northeast wind gusts 50 to 60 mph along the nearest
few miles of the coast Tuesday morning with scattered power
outages expected before winds turn north and northwest and
diminish Tuesday midday or afternoon. At this time, if its
snowing, we ?may? consider Blizzard, but if its rain, then a
high wind warning will work. There is not currently a heavy
inclination to fcst a blizzard in Monmouth county.
The brunt of this event should occur between 3 AM Tuesday and 3
PM Tuesday which will include snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour for a
few hours northwest of I-95.
This storm will show accumulations on pavement, especially prior
to 8AM Tuesday and then during the day where snowfall rates of
1-2"/hour occur. The difference between this and last Friday
March 10, aside from much heavier precipitation amounts, higher
wind, and slightly colder temperatures during the storm, is the
antecedent ground temperatures. On Friday, the 30 degree snowfall
occurred 12 to 15 hours after high temperatures ranged from the
upper 50s to upper 60s. This time, it will occur with frozen or
nearly frozen ground that includes yesterdays, 2nd or 3rd
coldest daytime temps of the winter, and several nights of
below freezing temperatures.
Uncertainty: the usual caveats based on track, modeled deformation-
lift in the dendritic growth zone, as well as periods of recovery,
even during the day when snowfall rates in the bands become light,
but overall confidence is above average on a high impact event,
especially Tuesday morning.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
They also issued a coastal flood watch, especially for Tuesday morning when they expect moderate flooding (2-3' above the astronomical high tide).
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal flood watch
The latest NAM 3k parallel dry slots most of NJ once the low passes offshore.
Just wanted to say a quick thanks to all the posters who said some nice things about my weather posts over the last couple of days. I really appreciate it. Your "like" counts all went up by 1, lol...
Thanks RU#'s.
This information is very helpful.
I would sign up for no more than a foot. You get to 18, 24 it becomes a major pain in the ass for clean up, emergency vehicles, or just plain walking.RGEM coming a bit west...brings mixing issues after big dump to those south of 95 and coast...still gives good snows to the north but you see how this model verbatim cuts back on snow totals toward the coast and southeast jersey and even along 95, its about 12 inches
Like whore...:uzi:
Safe travels, hope all goes wellNot when you are planning travel for a sick wife to see a doctor.
Ass wipe you are.
Well let the party begin for those mega snowlovers. I don't get the hardons for these folks who bask in seeing over 12 inches. It's overkill, And by Thursday they will be licking their chops on Saturday's system. Of course best of luck to those who get in traffic accidents, have property damage and suffer heartattacks from this storm.
And those mega snowlovers have a direct effect on traffic accidents, property damage and heart attacks? Damn them!
Of course they have no effect rooting for catastrophic weather but maybe they will feel bad seeing the results. Just like I don't root for hurricanes, tornados,tsunami and other bad weather events. Let's me sleep at night.
NO school Tuesday or Wednesday
if we get 18 plus there may even be delays for Thursday
Take a look at the wind field, from the 12z Euro.
Oh to be out sailing in that!
Not when you are planning travel for a sick wife to see a doctor.
Ass wipe you are.
18z GFS continues to say no to big snows....keeps the biggest stuff offshore never getting the area into the heavy bands and scoot away...would be 6-10 inches with a few spots approaching 12....very consistent so lets see how the mets factor it in
In!One doesn't sail in 80 mph winds. That's called a "survival storm". Techniques vary somewhat (use of drogues vs. sea anchors, or neither) but the basic principle is the same - reduce sail to bare poles and try to keep the boat from being broadside to the waves. Also pray.
Well, At least the storm wipes out my state grand jury duty this week.....
I remember those days. Sitting back watching others clear.
Hey, you missed a spot!
That will use up all built in snow days smhhh
Imagine if RU made the NCAAs and this storm hir
You are the reason why people get banned. Your love affair with #s.A "strain"? Try "nearly impossible". One of the reasons 3 people always ended up being banned from the weather threads last season.
Agree, much better than petit jury, but the commute into Trenton I can do without.Grand Jury is fun. I had it a long time ago. No more Petit jury after GJ.
Somebody just posted on AMWx that Jim Cantore is on his way to New York.
Kiss of death. Storm cancel.