OT: Another Minor/Moderate,Snow Event on Friday (1/19); Still Some Uncertainty
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Lots of chatter re: a major winter storm potential for Feb 5-6 in the Mid-Atlantic. What say you weather weenies of TKR?
You have a dog as an alter ego and I'm psychotic? That's rich. It's simply science, a subject you have demonstrated little grasp of for decades now.
Yep, lots of chatter, but only one of the long range operational models is showing the low coming anywhere near us (CMC shows a snowstorm for VA/MD/DC/DE into SNJ, while the others show a possible SE US snow/rain storm as the low is suppressed to our south), but the ensembles, which are usually the better way to go this far out, show more potential, but this is still over a week away, meaning watch it, but don't worry about it.
Last edited:
This thread is over.
We’re done here.
We’re done here.
I think we need a thread on the expectation of cold weather.
Why is that a big deal? I called that but you said you couldn't read everything last weekend. Take the time to find my post after you said NYC would get less then Philly. Duh that was the forecast! I guess you missed that hoping it would all go to your house. Such a wish caster. And you need to look at a Philly map sometime. It's a really big city. Your town isn't the size of most neighborhoods down here. I don't live in the NE. I live in Bala Cynwyd but work in No Liberties. Funny you post snow fall in places that on a good day during rush hour is at least an hour drive. You posted two spots that are ridiculous. One just said Philadelphia. Huh? The other one said SE Center City 🤣🤣😂 Whaaaat? No such place. Forecasting and geography are not your strong points. Stick to punk rock music
Still no idea why you got so worked up over early reports from Philly and the reports don't say "SE Center City" - pay attention, the location is "1 SE Center City," as per below, which in their shorthand means 1 mile SE of Center City - if you don't like the way the NWS reports the data complain to them (I don't either and have told them). And I grew up 10 min from Philly, so I think I know how large it is and that snow can vary significantly across the city, but that wasn't really the case with this storm as reports across Philly and the nearby suburbs in PA/NJ were all in the 4-6" range.
Also, a "wishcaster" isn't someone who wishes for snow, it's someone whose love of snow blinds them to reality and leads them to forecast way above what actually falls, usually. I love snow, but try not to let that color my judgment, which is why I've forecasted 8.5" for my house this winter and gotten 7.3", which is reasonably close and over the past few years, since I've been making predictions for my house (I don't actually make predictions for anywhere else, usually), my cumulative forecasts are several inches below what we've gotten.
...Philadelphia County...
1 WSW Belmont 5.9 in 0350 PM 01/19 Public
Philadelphia 5.0 in 0353 PM 01/19 Public
Shawmont 4.8 in 0535 PM 01/19 Public
1 NNW Northeast Philadelphia 4.7 in 0729 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter
Philadelphia International A 4.6 in 0700 PM 01/19 ASOS
1 SE Center City 4.3 in 0420 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter
Fox Chase 4.3 in 0600 PM 01/19 Public
So how much are you shoveling this morning? Was your wish casting on the mark today?
First off you have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to Philly. 1 mile SE of Center City. Please tell me where the starting point is.. Near the Zoo? Art Museum? Where I work near the Delaware? Center City is everything from Girard Ave to South Street (some include going a far South as Tasker) and everything between both rivers so that measurement is useless. As is Belmont. And the one named simply Philadelphia. 🤣🤣
I live in Belmont Hills section of Bala Cynwyd which isn't even in Philly. Similar to the Airport measurement. If Belmont refers to my house they nailed it. If they are saying Belmont near the Zoo then it's wish measuring lol.
I'm glad you're not a trained spotter as Metuchen would be reporting a foot this morning.
You went a long way to prop up a possible change over to snow this weekend when no one was even mentioning it. That is wish casting my friend 100%.
Looks like a good week for disk golf. No predictions needed
Last edited:
If you are honestly saying that most of the Philadelphia area did not get at least 5 inches of snow, then you are full of shit and you know it. I live in Wayne, and we got 6 inches.
I thought there was another weather event rolled in here somewhere and it turns out it’s just a week-long argument.
There is always a 100% chance of arguments in a weather thread.
ive tried to stay out of the last round, but i hope you are noting things about your friend in this thread
Never predicted snow for my area or anywhere near 95. If you actually read and understood my posts you'd see that I said the following: i) on Weds, noted that some models were showing the potential for significant snow NW of 95 and possibly some snow even along 95; ii) on Thurs, noted that the chances of snow near 95 had diminished (saying zero was more likely than 1-2"), but some snow still looked likely N of 80 and especially towards 84; iii) on Friday, as models continued to look warmer/wetter I said we didn't need a thread as accumulating snow was only likely along and N of 84 at elevation; iv) since Friday the only "debate" was whether we'd see some white rain along 95 and we didn't in CNJ, but parts of NYC and LI saw flakes this morning; I noted a couple of models on Friday showing some accumulating snow along 95, but largely discounted them.
The media in NJ/NYC were certainly talking about the possibility of 95 snowfall on Weds and even Thursday, but they also saw the model trends towards all rain for 95. Even with that, the Saturday night NWS forecast for some accumulating snow down to 80 and Channel 7's forecast of a 1" line from Blairstown to West Milford with <1" down to about 80 both busted fairly badly, as accumulating snow was really only seen above 1000' in the Poconos, far NW Sussex and the Catskills. It happens. Forecasts, even right before the start of an event can be wrong, although predicting <1" on grass and getting nada isn't terribly wrong unlike last week when they predicted 3-5" N of 78 and only an inch or so fell for most.
And you're still yelling at clouds about Philly snowfall from the last storm. If you don't like how the NWS reports snowfall, complain to them, not me, but there's zero doubt that everyone across the 142.71 square miles in Philly got 4-6". Also, my Metuchen reports often end up in the NWS reports as I take great care to measure accurately, which is often much harder to do in major storms with wind, which is why my measurements are typically less than what others report in my area for such storms (pretty sure nobody else is going out into an undisturbed field to measure when there's blowing/drifting likely causing people to report). high numbers).
I actually think the thing to do is what they do on the weather boards, where they have a running thread for discussion long/medium term snow threats, winter patterns, and general observations and then if a threat looks real inside about 5 days, they start a separate thread on it. It would only add one weather thread to the board each winter and maybe cut down on confusion when people see an old storm thread like this one being so active.
We've had separate threads started in the day 4-5 timeframe for the 3 snow events (1/6, 1/15 and 1/19) that have delivered at least minor snowfalls to parts of 95 and more elsewhere and these threads were generally fairly decent, so I think that part works ok. However, we didn't have a thread for yesterday's event as it never had anywhere near high confidence of 95 snow at the 4-5 day timeframe and it became pretty clear within 2-3 days of the event that it was going to be zero to pretty minor for all but well NW folks, but there was still, obviously, active discussion of the minor threat in a thread on an old storm, which some noted was confusing, but maybe wouldn't be if it were just part of a winter long thread.
I'm guessing some won't like that approach and some will (we know it's impossible to get consensus on most things around here, even on a 7-6 season being at least a modest success), but it seems to work on the weather boards. I'm curious to see what you and others have to say about the idea.
this isnt a weather board, seperate threads are needed good lord
the moderation on the 2 weather board didnt allow anyone to question ANYTHING about covid...so much for such a great discussion board. the political board on the americanwx board was a full leftist moderated that cried about misgendering, didnt allow questioning of blm riots and allowed someone called wxtrix to insult everyone who didnt fall in line with her. A board specifically designed to talk politics but only if you had tds
I couldn't care less about them. I'm not posting the totals, you are!! And you have no clue what your posting! I already stated well before the storm the Philadelphia stations had this area in the 3-6 range. They nailed it. As for this weekend they nailed it as well unlike your ramblings leading into the weekend about "possible" snow.
PA Stations cover up through the Poconos even though that area is a lot closer to NYC.
Article about the future trends with a different viewpoint then you. I'm guessing it's one of those things that he is only looking for the warm parts of the analysis like you look for cold patterns only because you want snow.
I like how you bust #s because this isn't a weather board but then in the same post cry about not being able to talk about covid on an actual weather board.
10/10 irony scale. Good lord.
So, you don't like the idea. Noted. The rest of your post is blather, having nothing to do with the weather, but yet you couldn't help yourself in trying to derail this thread further with political BS and the taboo pandemic topic. I'm sure it won't be long before your cronies descend upon this thread to finish the job and get this thread locked or deleted. @DJ Spanky?
Ok, now I have to think about it. Your vote to not do so counts heavily with me, but bac not liking the idea counts heavily towards me wanting to do it, lol. Just kidding...would be interested in at least a few more opinions, as I'm definitely not sold on the idea either.
You know my thoughts…
New event (no matter the size IMO), new thread.
It’s just an easier find, much easier, from a smart phone (or even a tablet) than having to scroll through a looooong thread. Even with a new, updated title (“new info on page ##”).
My $.02.
I would have zero problem doing new threads for more minor events or localized ones (affecting at least some part of NJ), like significant snow only for NW areas or coastal areas (that happens sometimes), but if I did that for minor/localized events I'd be excoriated by the usual folks, so if that's the preference, perhaps a little moderation could be provided when the crap starts being flung. Otherwise, it's just not worth it - it barely is sometimes for significant events and as you know from TOS, this is the only place that has this issue.
Just ignore it. Most of us filter it out anyway.
It’s a good thing that you and others do with this kind of thing. An important one too IMO.
- eye on the prize
- stay the course
- “do your job…”
I thought the same.
I could only argue with bac for a few hours then bowed out and put him on ignore.
This is still going on 10 days after the storm?!!
The endurance (from both sides) is truly astonishing 🙄
Thanks. These days I usually ignore it while the threat is ongoing, but the problem is the people who troll me then get attacked by people defending me and the thread goes downhill quickly, which many complain about, so a modicum of moderation would nip that in the bud.
Well I’ll admit, I do sometimes enjoy the collateral damage from that part of it. 🤷♂️
Is BickerBus really freaking out about (and weirdly flexing over) a 1.5 inch variance of snowfall across a dozen or so stations? Some automated, some manned by a trained spotter, some just average Weathernerd Ned with a Home Depot yardstick on his patio...over...what exactly? Stick a fork in this thread.
Actually, last week I put a few posts in this thread that got a few folks riled up. First, on Weds I posted about yesterday's storm which looked like it might be whiter 4 days before it hit and Friday night I posted about a potential pattern change coming in Feb (probably starting around 2/12 which is about 3-4 days later than originally thought) to a colder and possibly snowier regime. So people weren't talking about the storm on 1/19...other than WB who has some weird fixation about when I post Philadelphia snow reports (but says nothing when bac or others post those same reports).
BickerBus...well-played. Yes and the odd part is bac and others have posted NWS reports from Philly for years and I've never seen him go crazy about them. I think it stems from a storm maybe last winter or 2 years ago, where there were reports of an inch or so in the western part of Philly (at a few hundred feet in elevation) and less (but a little) in Center City near sea level and he flipped saying the people reporting that were lying because he was there (probably trying to measure the snow on the asphalt on Broad St, lol).
Yes, there are going to be differences in marginal situations across Philly, just like there are in NYC, where the inland hills of the Bronx can get 1-2" more than JFK on the water, but in a storm like last week's where there were no temperature or precip gradients across Philly, just about everyone got 5" +/-0.5".
