OT: Another Minor/Moderate,Snow Event on Friday (1/19); Still Some Uncertainty
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Picked up son up from Newark Liberty Airport last night. Leaving and following the road for NJTP South, the grass areas on both sides of the road were ice skating rinks. Had to have been some pretty good flooding right up to the curbs on each side.
Don't look now, folks, but we have another snow/mix/rain threat for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Most of the models have been mostly misses the past few days, but the potential has been there and today's 12Z models show much more potential for at least a moderate snowfall for most of the area (and rain too), with the Euro showing heavy rain changing to heavy snow with significant snowfall, the CMC showing rain to snow with moderate snow accumulations, but the GFS showing mostly just light rain and the UK showing heavy rain followed by a little bit of back end snow for NYC/NENJ as the low pulls away. If we see more evidence for snowfall after tonight's runs (which will be inside 4 days from the start of the event), will start a thread on it.
As usual, getting snow for the 95 corridor and the coast isn't easy, as timing has to be perfect with respect to the cold air to the north, the track of the coastal low and the degree of phasing of the systems involved wherein we likely need a strong low to generate dynamic cooling aloft and snow, so at this point, it's more likely than not that the 95 corridor/coast gets mostly rain, but there's now at least a modest chance of the rain changing to some accumulating snow. For interior sections (like N and W of the 287/80 intersection and N of 287 in NY), a good hit of snowfall is looking more likely.
Also, in case anyone is curious about how the 95 corridor big cities are doing, so far, this winter vs. each other and climo, see the table below. NYC doing the worst, well below average, and behind Philly/DC/Balt (which is unusual), all of whom are now at or above avg snowfall to date, although it's still early in the season. Boston and Richmond aren't doing very well either.
As usual, getting snow for the 95 corridor and the coast isn't easy, as timing has to be perfect with respect to the cold air to the north, the track of the coastal low and the degree of phasing of the systems involved wherein we likely need a strong low to generate dynamic cooling aloft and snow, so at this point, it's more likely than not that the 95 corridor/coast gets mostly rain, but there's now at least a modest chance of the rain changing to some accumulating snow. For interior sections (like N and W of the 287/80 intersection and N of 287 in NY), a good hit of snowfall is looking more likely.
Also, in case anyone is curious about how the 95 corridor big cities are doing, so far, this winter vs. each other and climo, see the table below. NYC doing the worst, well below average, and behind Philly/DC/Balt (which is unusual), all of whom are now at or above avg snowfall to date, although it's still early in the season. Boston and Richmond aren't doing very well either.
Any updates on this one #'s ?Don't look now, folks, but we have another snow/mix/rain threat for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Most of the models have been mostly misses the past few days, but the potential has been there and today's 12Z models show much more potential for at least a moderate snowfall for most of the area (and rain too), with the Euro showing heavy rain changing to heavy snow with significant snowfall, the CMC showing rain to snow with moderate snow accumulations, but the GFS showing mostly just light rain and the UK showing heavy rain followed by a little bit of back end snow for NYC/NENJ as the low pulls away. If we see more evidence for snowfall after tonight's runs (which will be inside 4 days from the start of the event), will start a thread on it.
As usual, getting snow for the 95 corridor and the coast isn't easy, as timing has to be perfect with respect to the cold air to the north, the track of the coastal low and the degree of phasing of the systems involved wherein we likely need a strong low to generate dynamic cooling aloft and snow, so at this point, it's more likely than not that the 95 corridor/coast gets mostly rain, but there's now at least a modest chance of the rain changing to some accumulating snow. For interior sections (like N and W of the 287/80 intersection and N of 287 in NY), a good hit of snowfall is looking more likely.
Also, in case anyone is curious about how the 95 corridor big cities are doing, so far, this winter vs. each other and climo, see the table below. NYC doing the worst, well below average, and behind Philly/DC/Balt (which is unusual), all of whom are now at or above avg snowfall to date, although it's still early in the season. Boston and Richmond aren't doing very well either.
Call me crazy but don't imagine you have to worry about snow.
Hitting the beach this weekend?🏖️
Last edited:
Rain develops Sunday with a possibility of a mix developing overnight or changeover into Monday. More possible north of 78 than south of 78 which has more of a chance of just cold rain or grassy surface accumulations. Anyone posting clowmaps or giving amounts should have privileges revoked
Needs to be watched for changing model runs but thats probably enough that needs to be said for now...a thread the needle event
Still looks like mostly rain for 95/coast with rain eventually changing to snow well NW of 95 (esp N of 80) and significant snowfall possible there (4" or more), but even for 95/coast there's a decent possibility of getting 1-2" on the backend (late Sun/early Mon) as cold air works in; more is possible for 95, but unlikely and zero is also quite possible and more likely than getting more than 1-2". Will probably start a thread later today, even if the threat for 95 is low, since there are many posters from NNJ/NEPA/SENY who might still be interested to hear about potential significant snow there. NWS discussion below.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trough moving through the Tennessee River valley will approach the
region Saturday Night into Sunday. An area of low pressure will move
up the Appalachians with a secondary low forming near the VA/NC
border and tracking offshore. This will bring a period of light
to moderate rain for most of the area Saturday night through
Sunday, with the potential for wintry weather in northern NJ and
the Poconos in that timeframe. The 00z deterministic runs
showed a good thump of snowfall but thinking some of the
snowfall totals output is probably overdone given the track of
the low close to the NJ/DE coast and ratios likely worse than
10:1. Thinking the better chance for snow will come Sunday
night/Monday morning on the backside of the system as colder air
works its way in and a more favorable time of day. We will have
to keep an eye on this system as the weekend approaches given
some of the more bullish deterministic guidance. Thinking winds
don`t look to be too much of a factor at least on land. With
some onshore flow, there may be some tidal concerns but too
early to speculate on what the impacts will be.
Last edited:
yet he will do one anyway
I like snow. But at this point, I'd be good with just one solid month of cold snowy weather and done. This year, that month has been January, which is almost over.Don't look now, folks, but we have another snow/mix/rain threat for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Most of the models have been mostly misses the past few days, but the potential has been there and today's 12Z models show much more potential for at least a moderate snowfall for most of the area (and rain too), with the Euro showing heavy rain changing to heavy snow with significant snowfall, the CMC showing rain to snow with moderate snow accumulations, but the GFS showing mostly just light rain and the UK showing heavy rain followed by a little bit of back end snow for NYC/NENJ as the low pulls away. If we see more evidence for snowfall after tonight's runs (which will be inside 4 days from the start of the event), will start a thread on it.
As usual, getting snow for the 95 corridor and the coast isn't easy, as timing has to be perfect with respect to the cold air to the north, the track of the coastal low and the degree of phasing of the systems involved wherein we likely need a strong low to generate dynamic cooling aloft and snow, so at this point, it's more likely than not that the 95 corridor/coast gets mostly rain, but there's now at least a modest chance of the rain changing to some accumulating snow. For interior sections (like N and W of the 287/80 intersection and N of 287 in NY), a good hit of snowfall is looking more likely.
Also, in case anyone is curious about how the 95 corridor big cities are doing, so far, this winter vs. each other and climo, see the table below. NYC doing the worst, well below average, and behind Philly/DC/Balt (which is unusual), all of whom are now at or above avg snowfall to date, although it's still early in the season. Boston and Richmond aren't doing very well either.
So, time to warm things up such that it's in the mid 70s at daybreak on the weekends until next January. You can have the rest of January for cold and snow. But by Saturday, Feb 3, I expect sunny and mid 70s at day break.
Make it so.
You realize that if I had power over the weather, we'd be buried in snow from December through March, so no 70s for you in February. Also, February is our snowiest month and there are plenty of mid/long range indications that this February could be stormy/snowy, which is not unusual in an El Nino winter. We'll see...
If you had control, you could make be 28F and snow every day at your house, or on your street, or whatever. And then leave everywhere else warm and snow-free.
And don't give me no lip about how that's not possible. Just 'cause nobody's figured out how to do it yet doesn't mean it's impossible. Get it done!
Wrong again, as I'd make it 28F and snow at my house, but make it 0F and blizzard conditions at your house and the houses of everyone else who hates snow, lol.
He needs his attention fix.
Snow's even nicer in April since it's less expected ; )
Time for an ice driving trip.
Does Porsche offer those? Seems like it should based on the safari image it's been leaning into the past few years.
I don’t know if they sponsor or organize such trips. But I would guess various Porsche clubs out there, especially in colder regions of the world, do. They do a ton of harsh winter testing of all their cars.
I’d be more okay with snow/cold if the new SUV wasn’t in the shop the last 4.5 weeks, with a likely ‘nother week or so to go. 🫤
Since the only significant snow is likely to be along and N of the 84 corridor, i.e., in the Poconos, Catskills and probably NW Sussex/NW Passaic at higher elevations, a new thread isn't warranted yet, as the rest of us will likely get mostly/all rain, especially for 95 to the coast. The only model showing appreciable snowfall for 95 is the GFS (several inches), but it's an outlier and not enough to warrant a thread IMO. I usually make a thread decision on if there is going to be significant snow at least along and N of 80 in EPA/NNJ, as many posters are in that area, but far fewer are well NW of there where accumulating snow is likely for this storm.
Models still all over the place, with the most interesting thing being both the 18Z NAM and GFS showing significant snow for 95 and even toward the coast late Sun/early Mon as the secondary coastal low takes over, but high skepticism on those amounts as the surface temps are in the 34-36F range the whole time, meaning it's quite likely that even if it does snow it will have trouble accumulating even at night. The rest of the models still only show significant snow for the Poconos, Sussex/NW Passaic (above 1000') and the Catskills with probably an inch or less down in other areas N of 80. Would still need to see major changes to start thinking this could be a snowstorm for 95, but the door is at least open a little bit for some snow towards 95.
Can you finally agree you are wish casting?
NWS for Coastal Monmouth Sun Night/Mon Morn......
"Rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Low around 36. Breezy, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected."
I can deal with that.
"Rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Low around 36. Breezy, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected."
I can deal with that.
No, when 2 important models are showing some snow for 95, saying the door is still open for some snow along 95, while recognizing that's an unlikely outcome, is not wishcasting. if all the models were showing all rain for 95 and I was talking about 95 snow, especially this close to the event when major changes are becoming unlikely, then that would be wishcasting.
And by the way, we have a thread on one of the greatest forecast busts ever and in that storm, the GFS (the one that's been showing the most snow for the coming storm) was the one model that was consistently predicting much less snow for Jan 2015. And that one busted even after the storm started. Forecasting is still a somewhat uncertain endeavor and I'm sure there will continue to be significant forecast busts.
And while this storm might not pan out for snow for most, just stay tuned. The long range model ensembles, which are decent at predicting trends, are showing a fairly cold and potentially snowy pattern shaping up after about next week, i.e., for much of February and maybe into March. I've seen plenty of decent pattern predictions and made threads on them over the years (with about 3/4 delivering the goods, i.e., colder than normal temps and above normal snowfall), but these were generally for only 2-4 weeks out, as further out is much more uncertain (and even 2-4 weeks isn't always right for patterns). Bottom line is when very good medium/long-range mets start comparing this pattern to our Feb 2010 pattern (record Feb snowfall for many), I take notice. Might be time for a pattern thread in the next few days if the models/data keep coming in looking that way.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59981-february-2024/page/2/#comments
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59981-february-2024/page/2/#comments
Ya know, I just realized if I cancel Netflix, etc., and just pay for my mobile phone with unlimited wi-fi, I can literally save hundreds of dollars a year while still getting the benefit of a Netflix-like series to binge-read every day.
"The Weather Weenies"
The story of 2 (sometimes 3 or 4) somewhat normal guys that, for some reason, want to battle it out day after day regarding who's right and who's wrong about the weather. There are always some guest stars that pop in and pop out throughout the episodes, and it only takes a few views to get a feel for where the side characters share their allegiances. It's entertainment at its best.
Awards-eligible.
"The Weather Weenies"
The story of 2 (sometimes 3 or 4) somewhat normal guys that, for some reason, want to battle it out day after day regarding who's right and who's wrong about the weather. There are always some guest stars that pop in and pop out throughout the episodes, and it only takes a few views to get a feel for where the side characters share their allegiances. It's entertainment at its best.
Awards-eligible.
Accumulating on grass in January at the tail end of an event with temps above freezing isnt a snowstorm
