OT: Another Minor/Moderate,Snow Event on Friday (1/19); Still Some Uncertainty
- Thread starter RU848789
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Typical 9-year old response from you. About 3/4 of these pattern predictions have verified over the last 7-8 years and those threads are still accessible.
Accumulating snow on grass counts. Much less impact of course, but it counts. I still don't expect more than white rain that doesn't accumulate along 95, but a small accumulation on grass is still about a 10% possibility, as per the graphic below.
Oh anyone can set parameters to say they are right
Accumulating snow on grass counts. Much less impact of course, but it counts. I still don't expect more than white rain that doesn't accumulate along 95, but a small accumulation on grass is still about a 10% possibility, as per the graphic below.
Getting desperate when you are posting a 1 in 10 map
How disengenous of you by not also posting the 9 in 10 map
Don't need to. Already said it's very unlikely to have any accumulation, but you've been implying there's 0 chance, so just disproving that.
I've made clear the parameters in every one of those threads. Above normal means in the top 1/3 of cases vs. climo for both cold and snow and I showed that those patterns delivered on that. I didn't just "set" any parameters, I used what any meteorologist would use. Wanna try again with some childish snarky remark, since you're incapable of debating like an adult?
Feels like the snow wishcasters with these inconsequential events are ike Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. They fall for it every single time. God love ‘em.
You should have that statement tattooed on your forehead while at the same time having a mirror permanently attached so you can see yourself and the statement at all times. 😉
I'm not gonna say why, 'cause it's CE material. But as a hint, let's just say it's been 2,563 days. If only you had your above statement handy, you coulda realized how you were listening to people who were setting parameters to say they were right. They were even writing MEMOs full of conjured up parameter values.
Only that doesn't work once stuff reaches a court of law with rules of evidence and procedure. And juries. Narratives rarely survive due process.
Thank-you, by the way, for this wonderful opportunity to use your own words to teach you something valuable. For you, no charge. 'Cause I love you, man. ❤️
If this were a poker hand, would you hit or fold?Accumulating snow on grass counts. Much less impact of course, but it counts. I still don't expect more than white rain that doesn't accumulate along 95, but a small accumulation on grass is still about a 10% possibility, as per the graphic below.
This is where you are 1000% wish casting. You know it's not going to happen but keep digging for someone saying there is a chance an you have to post it.
Why is that post funny? Didn’t you say a month or two ago people can “take what they want” from long range info?
Certainly, hence why I asked what was funny about it. Yet it’s a theme here that questions I ask aren’t answered for whatever reason..
Nope. I don't "know" what's going to happen. I think in statistical probabilities and as of my earlier post it was at least 90% likely that the 95 corridor would get zero snow with a 10% chance of a little bit of snow. And this afternoon the NWS updated its forecast and increased the areas expected to get a little bit snow significantly, generally down to 78. Still extremely likely not a big deal (especially on the roads with temps in the mid-30s) anywhere outside of the higher elevations in the Poconos/Sussex/Hudson Valley, but some people might be interested to know they might get a small snow accumulation on the grass down to 78.
Also, tonight's models mostly showed at least an inch or so along 287 from 80 around to CT (and more NW of there), which is more than the NWS forecast and more than the models were generally showing earlier today - might be enough to warrant an increase in NWS snowfall forecasts again. Channel 7 already has the 1" line running from Blairstown to West Milford. Again, still probably not a problem on the roads anywhere outside of the higher elevations I mentioned above, unless the storm overperforms - about half of the models are showing several inches N of 80 (and NW of 287), but the other half only show more than 1" along/N of 84. We have had many storms overperform in the past, just not recently.
Not sure what you're asking (hit?). But if you're asking whether I would bet on seeing accumulating snow along 95, hell no. I'm about 50/50 on whether we see some flakes falling from the sky but not accumulating (white rain) after midnight as cold air works in on the backside.
It's snowing now in the Poconos and far NW Sussex above 750', but not really accumulating yet, although I do think the Channel 7 1" line (on grassy surfaces) from about Blairstown to West Milford is a decent guess. I would guess we'll only see minor (<1") accumulations on grassy surfaces N of 80 (and W of 287) and not S/E of there.
Cant be we were told a pattern change is coming and this guy is 90% right when it happens
Nice! Super Bowl tailgate in the backyard! Bring out the electric deep fryer. Deep fried Cajun wings, fried turkey breast for turkey clubs, cigars and of course beers are the first items on the menu.
Yep and the CPC is still calling for above normal temps through about then, which is why I haven't started a colder pattern thread yet, as I don't like to do that with the pattern change starting 2 weeks out - just about every colder (or warmer) pattern thread I've ever started had the pattern fairly locked in starting by Day 8/9 or so. The mid-range models are showing some potential for cold the 2nd week of Feb, starting around 2/5, but probably not worth banking on. Weeks 3 and 4, however, are showing a colder regime with high temps generally below 40F most/all of that time, so any colder pattern thread will likely have to wait 3-5 days. However, there are a few snow threats worth watching during the 2nd week in Feb even if it's not "cold" the whole time.
Nope, didn't start a pattern thread yet, as confidence wasn't high enough for the 2nd week in Feb being cold, as I just explained. But when I do start pattern threads, they've been about 90% accurate on temps (and ~70% accurate on snowfall).
Forgot to add pomme fries (french fries) with Belgian style dipping sauces.
Sure, just search for threads with "pattern" in the title - most are still on the board, although I think 1 or 2 were deleted or maybe moved as they got out of hand. Below is what I posted after the winter of 21-22. I forgot, though, that I had a cold/snowy pattern thread for March 2023, which failed miserably, so that would make 9 of 11 (82%) temperature pattern forecasts being right and 7 of 11 (64%) snow trend forecasts being right vs. a ~33% chance of guessing being right for 3 outcomes (above/below/avg).
Here's my running summary of pattern posts and outcomes over the past several years, featuring 9 of 10 temperature patterns verifying and 7 of 10 snowfall patterns verifying.
- Warm/not snowy for 2nd half of Feb 2022: verified with 6F warmer than normal and 1/4" of snow in NB.
- Cold/snowy for 2nd half of January 2022: was much colder than normal and much snowier than normal and much snowier than normal (8" of snow in New Brunswick)
- Cold/snowy for 2nd half Feb 2021: was much colder/snowier than normal
- Warm/not snowy Feb 2020: quite warm and no snow whole month
- Cold/snowy for 2nd half of jan 2019: was cold, but well below normal snow
- Cold/snowy for early April 2018: was cold/snowy (4" snow on 4/3)
- Cold/snowy pattern for March 2018: was cold and very snowy in March 2018
- Cold/snowy pattern for early Feb 2018: was cold, but little snow
- Cold/snowy pattern for early Jan 2018: was cold, but little snow
- Cold/snowy pattern for mid-March 2017 was cold and very snowy
Snow showers up top here in Boone NC. Winter Advisory from noon today to noon tomorrow, with up to 6" of accumulation at elevations at/over 4000 feet. We'll see. Our Costco run to Winston-Salem tomorrow is now in jeopardy. Oh the humanity.... LOL....
NO!!! Don't encourage him to start another rain thread!! 🤣
